Trump was at it again on early morning Twitter today. The 7 AM Edition.
Donald J. TrumpVerified account
@realDonaldTrump
122 vicious prisoners, released by the Obama Administration from Gitmo, have returned to the battlefield. Just another terrible decision!
7:04 AM – 7 Mar 2017
23,529 replies 17,882 retweets 68,252 likes
Here the inciting influence is fairly clear. The Fox & friends hard news mavens loaded up at 6:30 AM with a GITMO lesson of incompetence and mendacity that our C-I-C immediately grasped and took to heart, responding with a resounding Twit in support 30 minutes later, even before his breakfast.
Fox News didn’t actually say Obama released 122 bad dudes in a terrible decision. They left it comfortably vague for uninformed, biased know-nothings in their viewer audience to improvise for themselves, once primed. And the official government report Fox relied on for their story summary was 6 months out of date (July 15, 2016).
Summary of the Reengagement of Detainees Formerly Held at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba
The Director of National Intelligence submits this summary consistent with direction in the Fiscal Year 2012 Intelligence Authorization Act, Section 307, which states:
(a) “The Director of National Intelligence, in consultation with the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency and the Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, shall make publicly available an unclassified summary of,
(1) intelligence relating to recidivism of detainees currently or formerly held at the Detention Facility at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, by the Department of Defense; and
(2) an assessment of the likelihood that such detainees will engage in terrorism or communicate with persons in terrorist organizations.
(b) Updates – Not less frequently than once every 6 months, the Director of National Intelligence, in consultation with the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency and the Secretary of Defense, shall update and make publicly available an unclassified summary consisting of the information required by subsection (a) and the number of individuals formerly detained at Naval Station, Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, who are confirmed or suspected of returning to terrorist activities after release or transfer from such Naval Station.”
See below:
And this is the latest report dated January 15, 2017. For once , why don’t we stick to the latest iteration of an actual official government report. See the most recent January 15, 2017 version here:
As of January 15, 2017, 714 (out of a total of 779 ever held Guantanamo detainees) had been transferred out of U.S. custody. The great majority (532) were ‘released’ by Republicans under Bush II. No disputing that one, folks. Only 182 detainees were released by Obama. According to official U.S. intelligence assessments, of that total number , 121 were confirmed to have reengaged in terrorist activities after release, a recidivism rate of 17% overall.
But the Devil, as usual is in the details. Of the 121 second-chance bad dudes, 113 (that is more than 93%) were let go by Republicans and Bush II. Only 7% of the bad recidivists were released by Obama’s procedures and control since he took over in 2009.
Worse for the partisan comparison reflecting poorly on Trump.45’s party is that the percentage of second-chance bade dudes to total detainees released was 21% under the Republicans and Bush II, and just 4% under Obama. In plain English, the Republican (Bush/Trump.45) party record is a bit more than 5 times worse than everything Obama did. Imagine that!
One lesson is, if you’re going to get all statisticy and stuff, read the actual fine print before shooting your mouth off. That’s for Fox & friends.
But their relative innumeracy is even worse than that little gem. For it turns out hat of the 121 confirmed second-chance bad guys, only 68 (56%) are in the battlefield any more. Only half of the purported bad guys. How’s that? Because 31 are dead and buried, and 22 are sill in jail, just in foreign countries, so they are not costing U.S. taxpayers any money for their upkeep. An actual fiscal advantage for the U.S., lowering the budget deficit (by a Democrat no less).
So, the whole 121 figure is overstated by almost twice as much as actually the case by the Fox News. Thus these second-chance dudes have not returned to the battlefield in the present tense meaning of the word, i.e., able to harm Americans anywhere, unless you want to count dead men, and some others fellas who spend their time behind bars in harsh conditions outside of our country.
Now someone looking at all the numbers might say well what about the ‘suspected’ category. The government report has that category precisely to distinguish a group who might be doing some bad stuff or thinking about doing some bad stuff, but for which there is no hard evidence or actual proof. If there were, they would be in the confirmed category, obviously. Let’s give Fox News some credit from not lumping everybody with a Muslim name or country of identification in the same pile in this instance. A little factual discrimination please. Congratulations on their factually based constraint.
Here is the description of the differences (confirmed versus suspected) from the DNI Report’s fine print:
Definition of “Terrorist” or “Insurgent” Activities. Activities such as the following indicate involvement in terrorist or insurgent activities: planning terrorist operations, conducting a terrorist or insurgent attack against Coalition or host-nation forces or civilians, conducting a suicide bombing, financing terrorist operations, recruiting others for terrorist operations, and arranging for movement of individuals involved in terrorist operations. It does not include mere communications with individuals or organizations—including other former GTMO detainees—on issues not related to terrorist operations, such as reminiscing about shared experiences at GTMO, communicating with past terrorist associates about non-nefarious activities, writing anti-US books or articles, or making anti-US propaganda statements.
Definition of “Confirmed” Activities. A preponderance of information which identifies a specific former GTMO detainee as directly involved in terrorist or insurgent activities. For the purposes of this definition, engagement in anti-US statements or propaganda does not qualify as terrorist or insurgent activity.
Definition of “Suspected” Activities. Plausible but unverified or single-source reporting indicating a specific former GTMO detainee is directly involved in terrorist or insurgent activities. For the purposes of this definition, engagement in anti-US statements or propaganda does not qualify as terrorist or insurgent activity.
But let’s go ahead and indulge the conspiracy fantasists out there, and assume all the suspected second-chancers have committed terrorist acts we don’t know about, or are working up to it and will engage one of these days, or even are just experiencing terrorist-type lust in their hearts to repurpose a Jimmy Cater quip to Playboy 30 years ago.
According to the latest DNI Report, the imaginary second-chance bad dude population released from Guantanamo increases to 208 out of 714 (29%). That is not a great number, but…. A little context here. A 2014 study of 400,000 prisoners from 30 US states showed that about 33% of violent offenders were arrested for another violent crime within 5 years of their release from incarceration. A substantial fraction of that number occurred within the first year (about 3% of the total), and most of the new crimes happened within 3 years (26% of this total). Only about 5% of the new offences occurred after 3 years out on the street So the Guantanamo detainees have a similar recidivism record to those felons in the U.S. convicted and released from prison, according to this report by the federal Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS). Maybe the Guantanamo release performance record is not so terrible after all.
But to get to the nub of it. Invoking the partisan comparison factor, 187 of the total of 208 possible second-chancer bad dudes are the Republican gift to all of us (or 90% of the whole mess), versus 21 out of 208 (or just 10%) which can be laid at the feet of Obama and the Democrats.
Summing Up
Fake news will get you every time someone has a chance to look behind the smoke and mirrors drawn curtains. Fox is famous for amplifying unfunded and over the top charges with their cute anchors and exciting scrolling banner always moving, moving on the screen. Instant excitement and stimulation.
Fox News is one thing, but Trump.45 has altered the modern political communications game in America by his repeated, unthinking and irresponsible echo chamber amplification of phony stories and slender reed stories or (sometimes) stories with no reeds at all, like the ridiculous 5 million illegal immigrant voter canard he keeps on perseverating about.
What is shameful and embarrassing for out national pride in all this is that Trump.45 has at his direct personal command with a snap of a finger, a head nod or glance, a mere shout out, or a simple phone call, the most advanced, sophisticated, accurate and detailed intelligence product, services, and personnel in the entire world. Even better than Putin’s minions or Trump’s golfing buddies, sorry to say.
Yet Trump.45 persists in getting worked up by fabulist, incomplete, false, and rubbish filled items half-heard thorough his sleepy eyes early in the morning after a troubled night of restless discontented sleep.
What happened this morning? Trump heard a crock, took it to heart, and let his reptile brain loose in a Twit. He made no effort to check the facts, consult anyone who knows what he or she is talking about on this subject, or access the right-at-his-hand assistance a $62 billion dollar intelligence budget offers to any President, anytime, anywhere, 24/7/365. Of course, Trump.45 did not bother to check his own in box or read the reports on his desk for the official January 2017 report about Guantanamo recidivism.
I checked. You can try it for yourself. The entire report public summary is just 2 pages long. Actually 1 ¾ 8 ½ x 11 pages, but ½ of the first page is a table graph.
Even an adult ADD sufferer who doesn’t like reading, and suffers impatiently, can get through those few lines. There is even a very beautiful, helpful chart that lays it all out. I know it’s not exactly a 4-color map the way Trump likes for his communications from staff, but it’s pretty darn close. Even a 5th grader, etc., etc.
What an idiotic, incompetent performance.
Fox we can forgive. They are a private profit making enterprise and can foolishly go wherever they want as long as their audience and financial resources hold out. The President is another matter. Trump.45 works for us, We the People, and he needs to be held to some minimal factual standard. He may donate his salary to the Treasury, but as taxpayers we are all footing the outrageous $3 million plus week-end vacation trip bills to Mar-a-Lago, four times already in just 6 weeks. Not a good investment of out hard earned contributions to the federal budget, I say.
And America is fed yet another overflowing crockful.
What’s next, my fellow citizens?
Guantanamo Time Frame Comparisons: Bush versus Obama
If you are a real careful reader, you might inquire whether the time comparisons between Bush II’s performance and that of Obama are fairly accounted for. And you would have a point. The Guantanamo Detention facility was not opened until 2002, so George Bush only had 7 years of confinement and release of detainees to defend in our comparison, starting with an initial population of zero detainees. It took a while to ramp up the operation. Obama had 8 full years starting with 240 long term prisoners to clean up after. So, the comparison is not entirely fair to Obama since he began with hundreds of long term malcontents and terrorist actors and suspects in custody facing him, after Bush II had previously let out the easiest ones to dismiss from US custody.
Nearly all recidivism occurs within 5 years of the initial release, so Obama still has some tail on his exposure from second-chancers, whereas Bush II’s exposure period is more than 5 years in the past. Thus, there may be some adjustment upward, lessening Obama’s demonstrated superior performance over the Republican stewardship record of this problem (which Trump.45 inherits) during the next 5 years. However, substantially fewer detainees have been released during the last five years than under Bush II (63% fewer), so this uptick is not likely to change the overall picture.
One accounting of releases during Obama’s last 5 years is as follows:
- Year Releases
- 2012 4
- 2013 11
- 2014 28
- 2015 20
- 2016 48
- 2017 14
For Obama detainees released less than 3 years ago (110 total from 2014 through 2017 end of Obama’s term), this suggests a possible new count of perhaps 5 more confirmed second-chancers to come when all is said and done. Add the expected tail to the currently confirmed Obama totals and you get a grand total of 13 out of 196 (including the 14 late January 2017 Obama transfers) or 6.5%, still about 3 times better performance than the Trump.45’s political and philosophical forebears, the majority Republicans and Bush II. Oopsie.