Trump and the Three Amigos Primaries (NOT) (April 20, 2016)

After a two-week vacation from presidential primaries, we watched as New York voted yesterday, April 19. The polls closed at 9 PM eastern time, and the Republican race was promptly call at 9:02 (CBS), before any significant number of actual votes were counted. Trump made a similarly rapid victory appearance at Trump Tower coming down the escalator at 9:32 PM. He claimed victory in an abbreviated 8-minute modified stump speech, declaring he was the prohibitive favorite after smoking Cruz in NY. He again railed about crooked and unfair delegate selection rules, three or four times.

He left without taking any questions from a media full house, which had gathered partly because the campaign had said he would answer questions

From the Los Angeles Times story, April 19:

“The people aren’t going to stand for it,” said Trump, who has warned that riots could break out at the Republican National Convention in Cleveland in July if he is denied the nomination despite winning more votes than any opponent.

Trump laid ground – just as he has at nearly all of his public events over the last week – for challenging the legitimacy of any delegate vote to nominate Cruz at the convention in spite of Trump’s all-but-inevitable finish with a bigger share of the popular vote.

“It’s a crooked system,” he said, a remarkable denunciation of the GOP coming from the front-runner for its White House nomination. “It’s a system that’s rigged, and we’re going to go back to the old way. It’s called you vote and you win.”

“Nobody can take an election away with the way they’re doing it in the Republican Party,” Trump said.

And from Jenna Johnson in the Washington Post, April 20:

Fewer than eight minutes after starting, Trump began to wrap up his brief remarks.

“Have a great evening — we celebrate, and tomorrow morning we go back to work,” Trump said. “I’m flying tomorrow morning to Indiana. I’m going to Pennsylvania. I will be all over. So we’re going to celebrate for about two hours, then early in the morning I get up, and we begin working again.”

Oddly, he said his family would celebrate for about two hours, and then he would be ready to fly on to Indiana to begin work on five northeast primaries: Connecticut, Rhode Island, Delaware, Maryland, and Pennsylvania scheduled for April 26..

In the two weeks since Trump’s shellacking in Wisconsin on April 5^th there has been a different atmosphere about the candidate. In the last couple of days there has been a somewhat strange mood around the campaign. Trump’s campaign activity seemed slower, including just two stops over the last weekend, a rally Monday night in Buffalo, and a quick limo trip to vote on Tuesday, before he returned to ground in Fortress Trump Tower. It was almost as if you could somehow feel the barometric pressure dropping, like the eerie calm in the hours just before a hurricane strikes.

¡Three Amigos! (1986) An Absurdist Film Appropriate for 2016

¡Three Amigos! is a 1986 John Landis movie, starring Steve Martin, Chevy Chase and Martin Short. Music by Randy Newman. It scored 44% on Rotten Tomatoes review Site

Three out of work silent movie actors are accidentally drawn to a Mexican village that is being harassed by a gang of outlaws. The three, ‘Ned’, ‘Lucky Day’ and ‘Dusty Bottoms’ play ‘Lone Ranger’ types in their movies, but must play their parts for real now. Steve Martin is the Lucky Day character.

The Three Amigos Primaries (TON): Texas, Ohio, New York

To provide some perspective on yesterday’s New York results, let’s unpack completed primary results for each of the three remaining Republican candidates, in their respective home states, in chronological order: Texas (Ted Cruz, March 1), Ohio (John Kasich, March 8) and New York (Donald Trump, April 19).

For any collection of 3 unique letters, each taken once, there are 3! (3 factorial) possible combinations of letters (3! = 3x2x1=6).

For the Three Amigos primaries, N (for New York), O (for Ohio) and T (for Texas), there are thus 6 possible combinations, but only two that spell words: NOT and TON. TON is in the chronological order of the Republican primaries, so the new term TON Amigos will be used as the collective term here.

All three are large, important political battlegrounds. They are geographically, economically, culturally, and racially diverse. They have significant industrial sectors, concentrations of blue collar workers, several urban and suburban centers, and farm and rural areas. Together they comprise a population of 58.3 million people; that is more than 18% of the U.S .total of 318.9 million, or nearly 1 in 5 Americans.

They represent a large number of electoral votes: New York (29), Ohio (18), and Texas (38), or 31% of the total of 270 electoral votes needed to win the Presidency. The Republican party has awarded each of them a substantial number of delegate slots for the Cleveland convention: New York (95 delegates), Ohio (66 delegates), and Texas (155 delegates), or 316 in all. This is about 26% of the number of delegates needed for the nomination.

So far in 2016 there have been 41.4 million primary votes for all candidates, about 31% of the expected total votes to be cast in November (around 130 million).

Pooling the results of the TON Amigos primaries provides a large and representative sample of real votes, by party and candidate, in this political campaign season. These are the actual votes in all three Republican home-state primary elections as of April 19, including New York. They should provide a reasonable basis of comparison of the five active candidates for President from both parties.

Analysis of the TON Amigos Results

Grateful acknowledgement is given, as always, to the AP and the New York Times for their contribution to the public good, by prompt and accurate reporting of the 2016 primary results.

Inspection of the chart, adapted from data presented on the New York Times website (New York 98% complete, 04/20/2016) reveals some striking findings.

In absolute vote counts, Trump has done worse is each successive TON primary. He performed worst of all in New York yesterday. The number of Republican voters choosing him has dropped by 240,000 over the course of the three elections. Part of this decline in absolute numbers might be due to the fact that Texas has a larger population than New York, but the opposite is the case for Ohio compared to New York, and the decline from there is nearly as steep.

If Trump had the nomination secured or the race was essentially over, that might explain some drop off in Trump’s numbers. Neither is the case. The main reason Trump got so many fewer votes in New York compared to the other big ticket TON Amigo primaries is the drastic fall in Republican participation in New York. There was a stunning decline of more than 30% from partisan ratios in both Texas and Ohio, from the mid 60s% to just 32%.. This is especially troubling since New York is Trump’s home state, and it should be in his wheelhouse, if anywhere is.

Each of the three home state candidates won in their respective states, but only Trump killed the entire Republican effort across the board. More than 2 million Republicans voted in both Texas and Ohio, but only 860 thousand did in New York. This despite the fact that New York has a 65% larger population than Ohio. This depressed participation represents a potential loss of 800 thousand Republican votes in New York, if turnout had been comparable to that in Ohio. Such a deficit would be a horrific disadvantage to other Republican state and Federal candidates running in November up and down the line.

The good news for Trump is that he did, at last, after 30 plus contests win a better than straight up majority (60%) of votes in New York. Congratulations to him on this long sought achievement. The disturbing part of this scenario is that 60% of nothing is nothing, to use some New York vernacular. It does not bode well for Trump as a political unifier if he finally wins a Republican majority by sinking the entire Party around him. Trump just doesn’t seem to get the good-of-the-whole-party concept. His restrained 8-minute victory speech was still mostly full of me, my, and I and not enough of us and we and our. There are only about 12 weeks left until the Convention, not much time to heal wounds, that he is still actively inflicting on long-time Republicans, if he expects them to help him defeat Democrats later.

Within this large and diverse three state sample, Trump still garners almost exactly 35% of Republican voters. The typical 2016 advantage in primary voting for Republicans over Democrats in Texas (1.4 million), and Ohio (800 thousand) was absolutely reversed in New York (negative 900 thousand). Trump won New York for himself with a terrible vote count, and hurt the entire Republican Party enterprise in the process.

We haven’t said commented yet about how HC did in new York. She more than doubled Trump’s vote count. That’s right, doubled. Clinton won more votes in New York than the entire Republican field combined, by some 150,000 votes. Even Small State Bernie, beat him by more than 230,000 votes on Trump’s own home turf. These comparative results are pitiful.

Perhaps that is one reason Trump came out to claim victory so early, before the majority of the votes could be counted, gave an uncharacteristically short address, and then declined to take any questions from the press, though his campaign operatives had promised. Maybe the idea was to get out of town before the initial buzz wore off.

To make a simple comparison of what the pooled results of these three big prizes might look like in the fall, see the next voting chart aggregated across both parties. Among more than 10 million actual voters, HC leads Trump by 650 thousand votes. It is true that Trump is ahead of Cruz by about 370 thousand votes in these three contests, and he leads Kasich by 700 thousand. If Trump wants to measure results by actual votes received, he is not ahead of all comers in first place.

One could object that we have analyzed only three selected contests, and maybe we have a hidden motive, and the results are skewed. Choosing each candidate’s declared home state for a three-way head-to-head comparison seems like a fair choice on the surface, but we can double-check. Real Clear Politics has a wonderful real time vote and delegate tracker on the web to assist with just such information. As of today, Trump has received 8.72 million votes in all contests, and Clinton has 10.4 million. So Trump is 1.7 million votes behind. Clinton was heard to remark in her speech last night that she is the first candidate past 10 million votes this year, and Real Clear Politics confirms she is right. Given the next five states are in the Northeast, it is unlikely Trump will make up too much ground against Clinton in Connecticut, Maryland, Delaware, Rhode Island, and Pennsylvania next week.

The media horserace narrative from last night and this morning seems to be that Trump scored a major win, that his ship is righted, and that he is back in full command of the nomination race. I think there is cold comfort in last night’s New York primary results. His vote totals are very thin indeed, and the looming message for all Republicans going forward if Trump wins is quite gloomy.He is master of an empty larder in new York, his stronghold.

Trump’s Allegations of Unfairness in Delegate Allocation

This refrain has become a recurrent theme in the past couple of weeks, especially since the Colorado state convention. He has blamed crooked rules for cheating him and therefore the voters, in several states such as Louisiana, Wyoming, North Dakota, , Missouri, Georgia, and others.

What do the TON Amigo primary delegate allocations tell us about this situation of complex rules undoing what the voters have asked for? See the next chart. For the three TON primaries the actual delegate allocations are given in the first column. The second column represents the percentage of the 316 delegates on offer in these three states awarded to each candidate. The third column given the actual share of Republican votes only cast in each of the three states. Inspection shows that Trump has ‘stolen’ 8% more delegates than he has actually earned with votes, when the rules were applied to delegate allocation. Cruz has ‘stolen’ about 4% more delegates than he is entitled to by the votes he has received Kasich is just about spot on. His allocated delegates percentage overall matches very closely the actual proportion of votes he has gotten in total for Texas, Ohio, and New York, though not individually state by state.

The last column in the chart computes the unearned excess number of delegates each candidate has received out of the 316 total, not just the percentages. The big loser when the rules are applied is not Trump, but Rubio. He has been ‘cheated’ out of 28 delegates under the rules. Trump has gamed the system to his benefit more than anyone else (27 unearned excess TON delegates), almost twice as many as Cruz (14 unearned excess delegates).

What we have here is a classic Pot and Kettle situation. It might be a good idea for Trump to be quiet about this crooked unfairness shtick, before someone decides to check the claims for truthfulness. As is often the case with bullying behavior, the one screaming the loudest about getting screwed, is the one most at fault.

This discrepancy of nearly a 10% unfair advantage might lead someone to go back and check all the other previous primaries results to see if there is a consistent pattern.

From TV Tropes:

A character makes a wish and actually gets what they wished for, only to find that the reality does not live up to their fantasy.

Go figure.

*In my junior high school, boys in each grade were divided into four intramural teams for sports competition and PE. It was called the LAKE League system (named after the four principal founders of our school). In 7^th grade, my friends, Jamie and Matthew, and I were assigned to Team Adler at the beginning of the term. We each enjoyed playing football and were pretty good-sized kids. We formed a unit and gave ourselves a nickname by combining the first letters of our last names. In our case there were three combinations which spelled words. We were RAM, MAR, or ARM, depending on the relevant circumstances. All three of us later played as starters on our school’s varsity football team, two of us as senior co-captains.

Coach Alton Smith (Smitty)

Fellow school alumni Don Rottenberg wrote a terrific piece in 2014 about his sports memories, including some from our school. I did not know him, but even after 50 years away, my own memories are still clearly etched. I came to the school beginning in 1961, about three years after Rottenberg graduated. Coach Alton Smith (Smitty) (1944-46, 1953-1991) was the varsity soccer, swimming, and track coach, as well as an intramural sports coach. Smitty was my swimming coach for one year as a sophomore, and my track and field coach for four years. He could be acerbic, but no one he coached would ever have asked for another.

**From the Wikipedia entry:

In 1916, the notorious bandit El Guapo and his gang of thugs are collecting protection money from the small Mexican village of Santo Poco. Carmen, daughter of the village leader, searches for someone who can come to the rescue of her townspeople. While visiting a small village church, she watches a silent film featuring “The Three Amigos” and, believing them to be real heroes, sends a telegram to Hollywood asking them to come and stop El Guapo and offering a substantial payment she cannot afford, believing that they will refuse it and say “Our reward is that justice has been done”, as happened in the film she saw. However, the telegraph operator heavily edits her message since she has very little money to pay for it, rendering it ambiguous.

Meanwhile, Lucky Day, Dusty Bottoms, and little Ned Nederlander are Hollywood silent film actors who portray the heroic Amigos on screen. When they demand a salary increase, studio boss Harry Flugleman fires them and evicts them from their studio-owned housing. Shortly afterward, they receive Carmen’s telegram and its offer of generous payment, but misinterpret it as an invitation to make a movie with El Guapo instead of a plea for assistance. The trio agrees to go after realizing they have lost everything they had in Hollywood.

Stopping at a cantina near Santo Poco, they are mistaken for associates of a fast-shooting German pilot, who is also looking for El Guapo and who had arrived just before they did. The Amigos perform a show at the cantina, singing “My Little Buttercup”, and leave the locals confused. The German’s real associates then arrive at the cantina, proving themselves adept with their pistols. A relieved Carmen picks up the Amigos and takes them to the village, where they are put up in the best house in town and treated very well.

The next morning, when three of El Guapo’s men come to raid the village, The Amigos, thinking they are shooting a movie, do a Hollywood-style stunt show. The bandits ride off, making everyone think that the Amigos have defeated the enemy. In reality, the men inform El Guapo of what has happened, and he decides to return in full force the next day and kill the Amigos.

The village throws a boisterous celebration for the Amigos and their (supposed) victory. The next morning, El Guapo and his gang come to Santo Poco and call out the Amigos. The Amigos, once again thinking they are shooting a movie, perform another Hollywood style stunt show to try to scare El Guapo out of town.