The Literary Inspiration for This Title
The title of this post is a gentle adaptation of a 2003 best-selling satirical book by Al Franken,* who was subsequently elected to the U.S. Senate from Minnesota in 2008, and re-elected in 2014. Franken was a prominent cast member of NBC’s Saturday Night Live for almost 15 years, before becoming a radio host and political activist.
Franken graduated with a full sheepskin from the Ivy League institution in Boston (Harvard University was established in 1636). Trump, as you may remember, was not a four year student at the University of Pennsylvania, so he has earned only half an Ivy sheepskin. He transferred in as a junior, having spent his first two years of college at the Jesuit tradition college Fordham University in New York (established 1841).
Harvard University is older than the University of Pennsylvania (established in 1740; the Wharton School not until 1881) by more than 100 years. Harvard was the first of the nine Colonial Colleges established in America before the Revolution which created the United States of America. It is not only the oldest institution of higher learning we have here, but blessed with the largest endowment as well ($37.6 billion), about four times as large as that of the entire University of Pennsylvania, including the Wharton School ($10.1 billion). No one would simplistically equate the size of endowment with superior quality by itself; neither is it unrelated.
Wharton School Undergraduate Top 10 List (University Website August 2016)**
It is no surprise that graduates of the other Colonial Colleges and their successor institutions, as well as the top ranks of public and private universities established since 1800 in the U.S. would question Trump’s repeated braying that he attended only the “best” schools, and that he is very, very smart while not earning any academic honors or distinction in college, nor attending a graduate school or receiving any advanced degree (such as an M.B.A. in his case). Here, as too often elsewhere, his grasp of the facts reveals a slippery and fumbling hold.
Trump ought to just say that he earned an undergraduate degree from a prominent college, which he is quite proud of. That puts him, surrounded in good company, with several hundred thousand other Americans, who are fortunate to have received a quality education, which has made them more productive. Trump should leave it there. His ‘gilding the lily’ approach cheapens his whole enterprise.
The Lily: God’s Perfect Raiment
On a more individual and professional level, there are additional parallels between Franken and Trump. Both were involved with hugely popular TV shows for more than a decade. Saturday Night Live has been on the air for 41 years, been nominated 156 times, and won 42 Primetime Emmys. Franken personally was nominated 16 times, and won 5 group Emmys. Trump’s Apprentice (and Celebrity Apprentice) were on TV for 14 seasons, nominated for Emmys 8 times and won none Trump personally was named as part of the group twice in losing efforts. As an entertainer, Franken also has won two Grammys (1997, 2004) and Trump none.
Each has written or co-authored books, and appeared as an actor or character in several films. Of course, Franken has also won election twice as a U.S. Senator, while Trump has never been elected to any political office, federal, state, or local. Franken has been married once (since 1975).
One area in which there is no substantial parity is in their respective wealth status. Trump is a something billionaire; Franken isn’t ($8 million).
The Trump Polling Dilemma
During August the Trump Campaign has not had much positive polling news to trumpet on the candidate’s road trips. His scripted policy speeches have seemed listless and haven’t caught fire with his supporters. They want raw undiluted Trump, not the distilled and diluted variety. Even Trump seems visibly bored and unhappy with his reading chores.
Trump Smirk in New York April 2016
The main source of good cheer has been the positive reception he continues to receive at his rallies, even when, as is often the case, they are arranged rather hastily with limited prior setup and planning as his campaign strategy and activities seem to be in a near constant reset mode.
Trump Feel the Love Nevada January 2016
Here Trump is in his natural element. Just look at him smiling, nay veritably beaming, as the crowd shouts their love and devotion to him, with sports stadium-like chanted slogans, and festive responses to his jabs and insults directed to the media, various losers, politicians, weak Republicans, and the veritable devil herself, Hillary Clinton.
Trump Applauding Crowd Applauding Him Denver July 2016
Past experience has shown rather convincingly that Trump is numerically challenged, but all his stumbles are mere fluff shouted by his critics. His path to victory is based on his command of unearned public media fueled by his fabulous rally crowds, the biggest and best of this campaign year, by far. Impliedly the biggest and best ever. He has explicitly make the direct comparison for Republicans (citing King Ronnie), and by verbal shading for any Democrats as well.
Trump Double Thimbs Up Virginia October 2015
Of course, this requires a certain blank stutter step past previous performances (during 2008 for instance) by both the Republican McCain and the Democrat Obama, who trounced his ratings with far superior numbers. That is about 8 million viewers each, or nearly 25% of Trump’s audience (nomination night TV audience ratings). And Trump’s proclaimed best rally effort was in 2015 in Mobile, AL where he claims he drew 35,000 to a smallish football stadium. In 2008 Obama registered rallies with 72,000 in Portland (May 2008), 100,000 in St. Louis (October 2008), and 100,000 in Denver (October 2008).
From the Blaze (March 2016):
But these events don’t come close in size to some of the Obama rallies of 2007 and 2008. In October 2008, Obama got his largest crowd in the United States, when 100,000 attended a rally in St. Louis.
In Portland, Oregon, 72,000 turned out to see Obama in May 2008. And he drew 35,000 for a rally in Philadelphia in April 2008.
“In 2008, we had rallies with 50,000, 80,000, 100,000 people. I’m not bragging, I’m just saying we had some big rallies,” Obama told Democratic donors in Austin, Texas, Saturday. “Sometimes you hear folks say, ‘Oh, that rally is big.’ I say, ‘I don’t know. We had some pretty big rallies.’ I’m just saying.”
In fact, Obama gave his nomination acceptance speech in the Denver Bronco’s Invesco Field stadium before a packed house of 84,000 (August 2008). By contrast Trump gave his nomination acceptance speech in front of at most 18,000 (July 2016) at the Quicken Loans Arena in Cleveland (and the arena wasn’t really packed). Now Trump could have chosen the Cleveland Browns FirstEnergy Stadium (capacity 73,200) for his address, but he or his advisors apparently chose not to risk a partially empty stadium on live TV. Obama took a fairly significant risk; Trump eased off the gas entertainment-wise.
The Trump Rally Crowd Two-Step
Still, it is fair to say Trump’s crowds have been enthusiastic, and often well attended, among the largest of the year for either major candidate. This leaves out the Sanders primary crowds, which were also large and boisterous.
Flora Danica Gilded China by Royal Copenhagen
Yet it seems Trump is unable to resist gilding the lily.*** Instead of celebrating his success at drawing significant and vocal crowds, he insists on elevating their numbers to epic proportions.
Satisfied Trump at Rally Podium Washington State 2016
Politico writes (August 2016):
Speaking to a large crowd at Jacksonville Veterans Memorial Arena in Florida, Trump boasted about the turnout at his events, citing it as an indicator of his support. August 3 2016
“We go to Oklahoma, we had 25,000 people. We had 21,000 people in Dallas. We had 35,000 people in Mobile, Alabama. We have these massive crowds,” the Republican nominee said. “You’ve got thousands of people outside trying to get in [today], and this is one hell of a big stadium.
From Politicususa (August 16, 2016):
Donald J. Trump ✔@realDonaldTrump
My rallies are not covered properly by the media. They never discuss the real message and never show crowd size or enthusiasm.
7:46 AM – 14 Aug 2016
And from the New York Times:
Mr. Trump has pointed to the usually large numbers of people at his rallies, and their evident enthusiasm, as signs of strong support that will translate into energetic early voters. But during the Republican primaries, some Trump admirers at his rallies admitted they were not registered and had no plans to vote, and Trump advisers say that their voter registration efforts have been relatively modest.
Mrs. Clinton, by contrast, urges people at her rallies to register to vote, pointing them to clipboard-carrying volunteers who have forms to dispense and details about when, where and how to cast ballots.
Real Life is Not So Kind Number Wise.
Let’s examine a couple more recent examples.
- Date: August 3, 2016 (Wednesday)
- City: Jacksonville, FL
- Venue: Jacksonville Veterans Memorial Arena
Crowd Size
- Trump: 10,000
- News Media: 8,000-12,000
- Event Managers:
- Police or City Officials:
- Venue Total Capacity: 15,000
- Crowd Exaggeration Score: 0% (10,000 vs. 10,000)
- Crowd Inflation Rating: 0+ ET (Erect Towers)
Sources:
http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/08/03/trumps-jacksonville-rally-draws-15000/
http://www.news4jax.com/news/trump-campaigns-in-jacksonville
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jacksonville_Veterans_Memorial_Arena
- Date: May 7, 2016 (Saturday)
- City: Spokane, WA
- Venue: Spokane Convention Center
Crowd Size
- Trump: 10,000
- News Media: 4,000
- Event Managers: 3,929
- Police or City Officials:
- Venue Total Capacity: 2,700
- Crowd Exaggeration Score: 150% (10,000 vs. 4,000)
- Crowd Inflation Rating: 3+ ET (Erect Towers)
Sources:
http://www.kxly.com/news/spokane-news/fact-checking-trumps-rally-claims/39460530
http://kuow.org/post/trump-asks-republican-votes-washington-primary
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XHplocNJIk8
http://www.visitspokane.com/meet/convention-facilities/
http://www.spokesman.com/stories/2016/may/07/live-donald-trump-spokane/
- Date: August 30, 2016 (Tuesday)
- City: Everett, WA
- Venue: Xfiniti Arena
Crowd Size
- Trump: 13,000
- News Media: 10,000
- Event Managers:
- Police or City Officials:
- Venue Total Capacity: 10,000
- Crowd Exaggeration Score: 33% (13,000 vs. 10,000)
- Crowd Inflation Rating: 1+ ET (Erect Towers)
Sources:
http://www.king5.com/news/politics/live-blog-trump-returns-to-washington/311383438
https://regated.com/2016/08/donald-trump-hits-new-attendance-record-rallies/
Cumulative Trump Rally Crowd Tracker
This is the beginning of a work in progress. There are many more rally entries to be compiled and completed. It would help if the media reports were more carefully sourced as to crowd size by seeking independent confirmation estimates from venue managers or public officials such as Fire Marshals, instead of relying mainly on the Trump Campaign’s statement of tickets given out ahead of the event or attendance projections, for example.
The first installment was a post here from June 18, 2016 titled Trump’s Rally Crowd Tracker: Massive Projections. The three new entries from today’s post have been added to a cumulative summary to allow some basic comparisons (seven so far). See the chart below.
Based on the seven entries analyzed so far (May-August 2016), the average crowd size claimed by Trump is just over 9,000 (data for 6 rallies with Trump estimates), while the average best independent estimate for those crowds (7 rallies) is 5,500. On average, the Trump estimate for a rally crowd is about 2,500 more than the best independent crowd size report. The preliminary data suggest that Trump has exaggerated the crowd sizes by about 50% on average.
In no instance did Trump underestimate the crowd attendance. This indicates the errors are likely not random, but consistently favor a larger attendance than actually occurred. In 2 of 7 cases, Trump over estimated a crowd size at more than twice the physical capacity (Fire Marshal regulations) of the contracted venue. In only a single case did the best independent estimate exceed the listed venue capacity by more than 100 rally attendees.
It is not rocket science to see that Trump’s rallies are popular, and a significant number of people want to participate and celebrate. It appears his average crowd is, in fact, something more than 5.500 per rally during the recent four months covered in this sample. It is curious then that for 4 of 7 rally venues booked by the campaign, the allowable crowd size is less than the expected number of visitors, based on the best evidence of attendance.
Worse, if the Trump estimates were to be believed (9.250 per rally), those 4 venues were thousands of places short. This smacks of a deliberate scarcity strategy to make the rally seem over subscribed for the publicity value to be gained. This interpretation is further supported by numerous reports going back to the summer of 2015 where thousands more tickets were routinely given out by the campaign than could ever be honored at the rally locations. This leaves supporters frustrated and disappointed.
Trump has taken to blaming Fire Marshals for doing their jobs, or the biased media for not reporting his crowd sizes accurately, when the cause is really a deliberate maneuver by the campaign to create false shortages. In other words, smoke and mirrors.
Furthermore, a survey of nearby locations reveals that almost always the Trump campaign had a choice of larger rally sites in the same local area, if they wanted more space for supporters. Whether this poor performance is due to advance staff planning defects, to financial constraints in the campaign resources, or a simple disregard for the safety and comfort of Trump fans who want to attend a rally (often waiting for hours in extreme outdoor summer conditions) is not clear.
But the first place to look for answers is internal to the campaign, not an external conspiracy.
Final Comment
Trump’s real rally crowd estimates are perfectly respectable and something he should be proud of. But respectable is not good enough for Trump’s insatiable greed and envy. It must always be better than good, or he will imagine it so.
In the end, of course, the size, or lack thereof, of Trump’s rally crowds will not translate into the real gold of votes on election day. The discussion belongs more to the theater of the campaign which Trump seeks to manipulate. Still, looking carefully at the information available is quite interesting, if somewhat harder to follow, than the results of scientific polling with their established statistical confidence ranges, and relatively standardized methods. Consistent patterns of behavior of the P.T. Barnum Trumpian variety stand out. Starting in the summer of 2015, and continuing to August of 2016.
Fibs and the Fibbing Fibber who Fibs Them seems an apt description. In plain English, Trump frequently tells lies about his rally numbers, never apologizes or corrects, and moves on across the country.
Soak, wash, rinse, spin. Repeat cycle.
Get the picture?
*From the Wikipedia entry for Al Franken’s Book:
Lies and the Lying Liars Who Tell Them is a satirical book on American politics by Al Franken; the comedian, political commentator and now Democratic United States Senator from Minnesota. It was published in 2003 by Dutton Penguin. Franken had a study group of 14 Harvard graduate students known as “TeamFranken” to help him with the research. The book’s subtitle, “A Fair and Balanced Look at the Right”, is a parody of Fox News’ tagline “Fair and Balanced.” Fox sued Franken over the use of the phrase in a short-lived lawsuit, which has been credited with increasing the sales of the book.
Lies and the Lying Liars Who Tell Them largely targets prominent Republicans and conservatives, highlighting what Franken asserts are documentable lies in their claims. A significant portion of the book is devoted to comparisons between President George W. Bush and former president Bill Clinton regarding their economic, environmental, and military policies. Franken also criticizes several pundits, especially those he believes to be the most dishonest, including O’Reilly, Hannity, and Coulter.
Fox News sought damages from Franken, claiming in its lawsuit that the book’s subtitle violated its trademark of the slogan “Fair and Balanced”. The lawsuit was dismissed, and the attempt backfired on Fox News in that it provided Franken with free publicity just as the book was launched. “The book was originally scheduled to be released Sept. 22 but will be made available Aug. 21,” according to its publisher. “We sped up the release because of tremendous demand for the book, generated by recent events.”
In the lawsuit, Fox described Franken as “intoxicated or deranged” as well as “shrill and unstable.” In response, Franken joked that he had trademarked the word “funny”, and that Fox had infringed his intellectual property rights by characterizing him as “unfunny.” The publicity resulting from the lawsuit propelled Franken’s yet-to-be-released book to #1 on Amazon.com.
On August 22, 2003, U.S. District Judge Denny Chin denied Fox’s request for an injunction to block the publication of Franken’s book, characterizing the network’s claim as “wholly without merit, both factually and legally.” During the judge’s questioning, spectators in the court’s gallery frequently laughed at Fox’s case. Franken later joked, “Usually when you say someone was literally laughed out of court, you mean they were figuratively laughed out of court, but Fox was literally laughed out of court.” Three days later, Fox filed to dismiss its lawsuit.
Franken describes the legal battle in a paperback-only chapter of Lies entitled “I Win”.
The audiobook version was awarded the 2004 Grammy Award for Best Spoken Word Album.
Irony abounds here, bleeding rust stains 10 years later. Consider the recent turmoil at Fox News with the firing/ voluntary departure/ dismissal of network maestro Roger Ailes; the failure of the Fox lawsuit against Franken and Trump’s litigation fetish displayed openly and often; the reigning in of excessive litigation tactics to intimidate parties by the Federal Judge (analogous to the Trump University situation today?).
Check out Franken’s book on Amazon here (still in print):
There is a wonderful C-SPAN 2 Book TV panel discussion from 2003 with Bill O’Reilly, Al Franken, and the wonderful late lamented Molly Ivins, moderated by Patricia Schroeder. Well worth the hour plus to listen to a vigorous discussion, and see someone lose their temper.
Here is an extended profile of Al Franken from the glossy Harvard Alumni magazine in March-April 2012.
** This picture is from the Wharton School Undergraduate program website (accessed August 31, 2016). Perhaps an unintended irony that current Wharton undergraduates (at least a subset) display with smiles their pennant solidarity with Trump’s obsessive lifetime driving force and inspiration (before June 2015). Or maybe it is just an inside double-reverse student joke, and they attend Wharton mostly because they love learning and want to help others succeed in life.
From the Wikipedia entry for Shekel:
Shekel (Akkadian: šiqlu or siqlu; Hebrew: שקל, pl. shekels or sheqalim) is any of several ancient units of weight or of currency. Initially, it may have referred to a weight of barley. This shekel was about 180 grains (11 grams or .35 troy ounces).
An electrum Carthaginian shekel, c. 310–290 BC, bearing the image of Tanit, consort of Baʿal Hammon.
The Hebrew word shekel is based on the verbal root for “weighing” (šql), cognate to the Akkadian šiqlu or siqlu, a unit of weight equivalent to the Sumerian gin2. Use of the word was first attested in c. 2150 BC during the Akkadian Empire under the reign of Naram-Sin, and later in c. 1700 BC in the Code of Hammurabi. The šql root is found in the Hebrew words for “to weigh” (shaqal), “weight” (mishqal) and “consideration” (shiqqul), and is related to the tql root in Aramaic and the θql root in Arabic, such as the words thiqal (the weight) or Mithqal (unit of weight). The famous writing on the wall in the Biblical Book of Daniel includes a cryptic use of the word in Aramaic: “Mene, mene, teqel, u-farsin”. The word “shekel” came in to the English language via the Hebrew Bible, where it is first used in the Book of Genesis.
***To Gild the Lily
in common parlance, an excessive ornamentation of something that needs no more.
A definition from Dictionary.com
To adorn unnecessarily something that is already beautiful or perfect:
Etymology from the Wiktionary entry for the phrase “Gild the Lily”
A common misquotation of a line from William Shakespeare’s 1595 play King John, iv.2:
“To gild refined gold, to paint the lily, to throw a perfume on the violet, to smooth the ice, or add another hue unto the rainbow, or with taper-light to seek the beauteous eye of heaven to garnish, is wasteful and ridiculous excess.”
As the bard William Shakespeare makes an appearance from his history play King John.
King John, Shakespeare’s First Folio 1623
An interesting diversion about 18th century Botanica, gilding the lily, and redirecting excess female energy is found in this blog entry by Nicolas de Pompadour (2014) titled “Gilding the Lily – Botanica in the Home”. It is easy to believe (based on many of his interactions with women) that Trump privately shares the 18th century male perspective of keeping female nervous energy distracted and dispersed in harmless pursuits. He would deny any such inclinations for public consumption in 2016 (old Howard Stern interview riffs aside).
From Nicolas de Pompadour:
This incredible dinner Service ‘Flora Danica’ by Royal Copenhagen is said to be the most expensive China in the World. Each piece is signed twice, once by the artist and then by the gilder. Wouldn’t this look lovely in the Dining Room.
A china dinner service worthy of Trump’s elevated tastes. I don’t know what china Trump actually enjoys in the Trump tower or at Mar-a-Lago (though Flora Danica would fit like a glove in either decor since it is the best). A little over the top for regular folks.