The gold standard source for monitoring Presidential campaign TV ad spending remains the data provided by CMAG/Kantar Media on a weekly basis. CMAG/Kantar Media is like the Nielsen Ratings for campaign TV. A full accounting for our purposes is provided by the Associated Press (AP) wire service and found here:
CMAG/Kantar Media Presidential Campaign TV Ad Spending by Week
The data was last updated on November 1. The site provides data and graphics, state by state, for each campaign since January 1, 2016. A veritable treasure house to walk through. There is now just one full week left in the campaign before Election Day.
We offer another grateful shout out to CMAG/Kantar Media for patiently and carefully tracking all the data and the media outlets around the country who have made large portions of the proprietary information openly available to the public for their education and consideration. A true service to American Democracy and the literacy of America’s voters.
The original post about campaign TV advertising was prompted by Trump’s glorious promise to flood the airwaves with his popular message with $100 million in the last six week of the campaign. We looked at how he kept his word for the first three weeks of that challenge. The second post examined how he delivered on his promise to America during Week 4 of the Trump TV Media Challenge. Now we can add the results of Week 5 to our inventory (83% complete).
Since everything else is not equal at the end of the campaign, we will not have the final results for Week 6 of the Trump Ad Challenge before the election next Tuesday. The complete challenge results will not be known until after the election is over, the Electoral CSI technicians are poised and ready to respond when the crime scene is established for analysis.
So, how did Promise Master Trump do in Week 5?
Chart of Consistent Broken Promises (Week 5: October 22-29)
The following chart is a complete summary of CMAG/Kantar Media data for both campaigns for the last five weeks, week by week. It gives total TV ad spending (network, cable, and regional networks) in millions of dollars spent, and number of ads purchased. I have added a cost per ad comparison for each week.
Here goes. Remember Trump’s great challenge announcement on September 23 was that he would spend at least $16.6 million per week on TV for the rest of the campaign.
Did Trump keep his promise to his small donors for Week 5. No, and he is still short of telling the truth even for a single week (latest try short by $1.4 million or 8% for his best week ever). One might ask how many times a mistake, fib, innocent error, or falsehood must be made about the same set of facts before it is O.K. to just call it a lie.
Christian charity suggests three times is sort of the severe outer bound of tolerance (see St. Peter’s denials). For comparison, Trump’s broken promises count on TV support for his Movement is now up to five.
See the latest chart below.
Is there good news? Of a dim sort perhaps. Trump did increase his ad spending again by 14% (down from 30% in Week 4) to $15.3 million and the number of ads run by a paltry 4%, an increase of just 500 ads during the week. His cost per ad increased modestly back to $1,060 per showing, an increase of about 8% week over week, which is good news because the Clinton ad cost was $1,230 per showing for the same period.
So, for Trump on Trump internal performance metrics, he did sluggishly better. Compared to the opposition however, his performance was terrible. In total ad spending Trump lagged by an astonishing $23 million during the latest single week, and the Democrats ran an unbelievable 16,800 more ads in the week than his campaign.
Cowabunga, Dudes and Dudettes!! (An homage to the enormously popular “The Howdy Doody Show” for kids which ran from 1947-1956, right in the TV influences wheelhouse for fellows like Trump and your correspondent, with a modern twist for dudes everywhere. Or you could just go with a more literate Native American linguistic derivation for the phrase).
As for Trump’s cumulative performance during the five week challenge so far, he is no longer getting adjusted, he is now officially getting swamped.
Over the 5 week period, Trump is now $78 million behind Democrats in total TV ad spending, and suffers from a massive deficit of 70,000 total ads in that time, or about 14,000 fewer ads per week in the Battleground states. That’s a lot of unanswered slams against Trump in just the last 5 weeks, perhaps the most critical time in the election.
We asked last time if Trump could make up the difference, and somehow redeem his promise to small donors, in the last two weeks? The answer sadly is no. He would need to spend 50 million in the last week alone to fulfill his pledge to his supporters, which would be an increase of more than 3 times his very best ad week ever. Not going to happen folks.
As far as Trump’s cumulative picture for the entire General Election campaign season since August 7 goes, his competitive situation is now unrecoverable. He lags by $157 million in spending and 150,000 total ads in Battleground states where the election will be decided. The Democrats have tripled his performance on media communication.
That is simple campaign ineptitude, as well as an insult to all the ordinary Americans who donated to Trump’s campaign and trusted in his personal word. Romney came closer in 2012, Trump is a dud in campaign finance and management. “I will do what it takes, and spend whatever I have to,” says Trump. Scammer Supreme.
How is Trump doing in the critical Battleground states where the electoral votes and the crux of the election contest are being played out? Maybe he is more competitive on a state by state basis.
Presidential Campaign Weekly TV Ad Spending October 23-29
Here is a map of the campaign spending strategy by state from the same website above. TV ads are being run in a total of 18 states (the bottom four are basically throwaways with less than $20 thousand invested in each state and only by Clinton): 12 by both campaigns, and Clinton alone in Arizona (a pretty serious effort there at $1.32 million), and in Nebraska for a smallish $150 thousand (probably to try and peel off that single electoral vote by CD that is in play there).
Let’s stick with the battles joined in the 13 acknowledged Battleground contests.
Unlike the results of Week 4 comparisons, in Week 5 Trump was hosed 8 to 1 in states with more than $1 million spent (he won only in Colorado by $400 thousand). In each of the 8 state losses Trump was outspent by at least 2 1/2 to 3 times. In Florida alone, Trump was outspent by more than $6 million in one week.
In the four joint states with less than $600 thousand spent by the combined campaigns during the week, Trump won in two, Wisconsin ($400 thousand) and Virginia ($300 thousand), lost in Georgia, and tied in Maine. These two weak wins are presumed sentinels of Trump’s vanguard in his expanded campaign roadmap to the White House.
A very depressing picture overall for Republicans in the Battleground states ad battle for message delivery. The money comparison is one thing. But that after all is just about money and organization planning. The real kick in the teeth for Trump’s small dollar donors is that they believed him when he promised to spend $100 million to make his campaign competitive and give it a good shot to win.
Let’s just say it. Trump lied. He has lied every week for 5 weeks and counting. Over and over again. With impunity and a smirk. This is not some media conspiracy. These are cash results, take it to the bank, bottom line facts. Those stubborn little things that Trump keeps tripping over. If Trump can’t tell the truth now, what will he do to us (our national credit rating, debt load, and his personal self-dealing and brand promotion) if he gains leadership of an $18 trillion national economy (U.S. GDP was $17.9 as of 2015)? A frightening prospect, whatever your natural and usual political inclinations.
A Musical Break
We could use a musical interlude after this money focus. I think the best choice is an iconic pop song from 1967 by Sonny & Cher. Go on, you all know it “ And the Beat Goes on”.
Watch Cher sing and be gorgeous on YouTube. Enjoy and gather your wits.*
As Cher unknowingly predicted about Trump 50 years before the 2016 election:
“La de da de de, la de da de da”
Which just about perfectly describes his attitude towards telling the Truth.
A Note in the Interest of Strict Fairness
There is one area in which Trump is the acknowledged campaign leader in 2016. He has held more political rally, with bigger crowds, than Clinton. Lots more.
I don’t know anyone who has made a master list of Clinton’s rally appearances during this election cycle, but several folks have tried to do just that for trump. Mainly because here is the one campaign metric where is well ahead.
Let’s leave aside for the moment whether rally attendance leads to actual votes on election day, or predicts the outcome, but they are certainly enthusiasm generators for Trump’s eager supporters.
I have compiled a list of all Trump’s public campaign appearances since June 2015 through November 3, 2016, based on a tremendous effort by a true conservative stalwart (up until August 2016), then expanded with the updated Trump Schedules published by Conservative Daily News since then, all supplemented by YouTube postings of Trump rallies, general news reports, and the Breitbart fan boys adulatory coverage of all things Trump, before and since Señor Bannon joined the Trump campaign, while officially on leave from his day job.
Here is one partial summary chart of Trump’s Post Convention (since July 21) campaign rallies, sorted by state with number of campaign trips, and public rally appearances in each state.
You will note that he has held 113 events on 92 trips in less than 3½ months (105 days). That is a little better than one rally per day. It is in fact a rigorous schedule, given Sundays off for Church and reflection, some time for campaign reset as leadership teams were fired and reshuffled, a few days for Presidential debates, and the odd Hotel opening. It is more than Clinton has made. In total during his Presidential campaign Trump has made 310 rally stops in 507 days (about 0.6 stops per day, every day in that time, including Thanksgiving, Christmas, Easter, and Memorial Day).
The point of this chart is a logical connection between Trump’s top four state visits and his promised media push. There is evidence of synergy here, in a good way. The leaders in both categories are Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Ohio. And Florida is the biggest prize for votes, money , and personal appearances. Going away.
The next five in personal visit order are Colorado (9), Iowa (7), New Hampshire (6), Michigan (5), and Wisconsin (5). The next five spending leaders in order are Nevada, Colorado, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, and Iowa. There is an 80% double match across both lists here, with Michigan getting visits but little money and Nevada receiving bigger money but fewer visits. The other four emphasis states are consistent in both dimensions: Colorado, New Hampshire, Iowa, and Wisconsin.
All told, this is the dark forest crumb trail of the Trump campaign’s Grand Victory Strategy. It is focused essentially on 10 states for money resources and personal appearance time. Those are the metrics that count to win for him, since Trump doesn’t have any independent ground game or GOTV campaign operation.
Those states are Florida (29 electoral votes), North Carolina (15), Pennsylvania (20), Ohio (18), Colorado (9), New Hampshire (4), Iowa (6), Wisconsin (10), Nevada (6), and Michigan (16). If there is a Trump campaign secret sauce, this is probably it.
Is it a good strategy? Nine of the 10 states voted Blue in 2008 and 2012. North Carolina was Red in 2012, Blue in 2008. To make this more realistic I have looked up the very latest 1 week polling averages posted by RCP (RealClearPolitics) for each state. Polling experts say it is very unlikely for the polls in the final week to change more than 2% in any direction.
Trump leads in four of them: Ohio (3.3%), Nevada (1.6%), Iowa (1.4%), and Florida (0.7%). There is a dead tie in North Carolina. Clinton leads in five states: Michigan (5.7%), Wisconsin (5.4%), Pennsylvania (4.9%), New Hampshire (4.7%), and Colorado (1.7%).
For Trump to win he must carry all the four states where he is ahead in RCP state polls, and hold North Carolina (tied) where he doesn’t lead today, and win Colorado where he is behind by 1.7%, a total of 68 new electoral votes compared to 2012 (Romney’s total was 206). This would give him a narrow win with 272 electoral votes (270 required). He could also swap out New Hampshire (behind by 4.7%) for Nevada and still get to 270 electoral votes exactly, enough to win.
If he loses North Carolina, he must get 79 new votes. Wisconsin wouldn’t help alone. Michigan or Pennsylvania alone would do it, provided he wins everything else described above, including Florida, Iowa, Ohio, Nevada, and Colorado (where he is behind).
This strategy could work (assuming polling preferences translate into actual votes a week out), if there is a further significant positive shift towards Trump in Colorado, and the significant early voting in Nevada, Colorado, Florida, Iowa, and North Carolina already completed haven’t placed it out of reach.
The election outcome really now all boils down to GOTV efforts. Sadly for Republicans, that is yet another area where Trump, in his wisdom, has chosen to cheap out and field nearly no professional game versus a highly effective effort from Democrats.
One simple example. At Clinton’s recent Florida public rallies during the past 10 days, they are deliberately chosen to be within walking distance of official voting locations, with volunteers ready to escort rally visitors to the polls during daylight voting hours. That’s coordination and GOTV best practices. Trump has nothing remotely similar.
Trump did try a similar tactic at his Las Vegas rally last weekend. His campaign said they would take rally attendees in buses directly to cast their votes when the rally was finished. No buses were on hand, but the hotel (courtesy of Sheldon Adelson) did manage to provide some vans for transport, though it didn’t really make any difference. Only about 20 voters showed up for the ride to the polling place. That won’t make much difference in populous Clark County (2.03 million).
This lack of planning and proper money management may be another bitter regret Trump’s small dollar donors will have to swallow in the months ahead.
The election will likely be close in the end, but Trump is not in the Cat Bird Seat with one week to go. He has a shot, but he is not the favorite, even after the latest FBI injection.
Hope dies slowly, but it helps if money woes don’t complicate matters of trust and support in a political movement.
It’s on Trump, and nowhere else. Cheapskate Braggart.
* Sonny and Cher, The Beat Goes On:
“The Beat Goes On” is a Billboard Hot 100 Top 10 hit song written by Sonny Bono and recorded by Sonny & Cher.[1] It was issued as a single and appeared on their 1967 album In Case You’re in Love. It entered the Billboard Hot 100 chart on January 14, 1967, peaking at #6.
The song was sung at Sonny Bono’s funeral, and the phrase “And the beat goes on” appears on his tombstone.
A variation on the song was used in 1968 to advertise the Plymouth line of automobiles.
Cher: American Singer and Actress
70-year old Cher has been a fabulous American megastar for 50 years. She was born less than one month before Trump. From Wikipedia:
Cher (born Cherilyn Sarkisian; May 20, 1946) is an American singer and actress. Called the Goddess of Pop, she is described as embodying female autonomy in a male-dominated industry. She is known for her distinctive contralto singing voice and for having worked in numerous areas of entertainment, as well as adopting a variety of styles and appearances during her five-decade-long career.
Cher gained popularity in 1965 as one half of the folk rock husband-wife duo Sonny & Cher after their song “I Got You Babe” reached number one on the American and British charts. She began her solo career simultaneously, releasing in 1966 her first million-seller song, “Bang Bang (My Baby Shot Me Down)”. She became a television personality in the 1970s with her shows The Sonny & Cher Comedy Hour, watched by over 30 million viewers weekly during its three-year run, and Cher. She emerged as a fashion trendsetter by wearing elaborate outfits on her television shows. While working on television, she established herself as a solo artist with the U.S. Billboard Hot 100 chart-topping singles “Gypsys, Tramps & Thieves”, “Half-Breed”, and “Dark Lady”. After her divorce from Sonny Bono in 1975, Cher launched a comeback in 1979 with the disco-oriented album Take Me Home and earned $300,000 a week for her 1980–82 residency show in Las Vegas.
In 1982, Cher made her Broadway debut in the play Come Back to the Five and Dime, Jimmy Dean, Jimmy Dean and starred in the film adaptation of the same title. She subsequently earned critical acclaim for her performances in films such as Silkwood (1983), Mask (1985), and Moonstruck (1987), for which she won the Academy Award for Best Actress. She then revived her musical career by recording the rock-inflected albums Cher (1987), Heart of Stone (1989), and Love Hurts (1991), all of which yielded several successful singles. She reached a new commercial peak in 1998 with the album Believe, whose title track became the biggest-selling single of all time by a female artist in the UK. It also features the pioneering use of Auto-Tune, also known as the “Cher effect”. Her 2002–2005 Living Proof: The Farewell Tour became one of the highest-grossing concert tours of all time, earning $250 million. In 2008, she signed a $180 million deal to headline the Colosseum at Caesars Palace in Las Vegas for three years. After seven years of absence, she returned to film in the 2010 musical Burlesque. Cher’s first studio album in 12 years, Closer to the Truth (2013), became her highest-charting solo album in the U.S. to date at number three.
Cher has won a Grammy Award, an Emmy Award, an Academy Award, three Golden Globe Awards, a Cannes Film Festival Award, and a special CFDA Fashion Award, among several other honors. Throughout her career, she has sold 100 million records worldwide. She is the only artist to date to have a number-one single on a Billboard chart in each decade from the 1960s to the 2010s. Outside of her music and acting, she is noted for her political views, philanthropic endeavors and social activism, including LGBT rights and HIV/AIDS prevention.
She is one of the few artists to win three of the four major American entertainment awards (EGOT—Emmy, Grammy, Oscar, and Tony),[315] and one of five actor-singers to have had a U.S. number-one single and won an acting Academy Award.
Let’s sum up a little, shall we? Cher on TV had 30 million average weekly viewers in the 1970’s, 30 years before Trump had 10 million fewer viewers for The Apprentice peak in 2004. Cher is one of the amazing few American artists who holds ¾ of the EGOT Entertainment Grand Slam: Emmy, Grammy, Oscar, and Tony. Trump has none of them, not one. Not to mention Cher’s 100 million records sold.
To be fair, Trump does hold a 1990 Golden Raspberry (Razzie) for the Worst Supporting Actor in a Hollywood Film. His well deserved award was for his appearance as himself in the 1989 supernatural sex comedy classic “Ghosts Can’t Do it”, alongside Bo Derek, Anthony Quinn, and Julie Newmar (the latter two of whom undoubtedly regretted ever coming near the film).
Watch a brief clip from the movie “Ghosts Can’t Do It” on YouTube.
At the 1990 Razzie Awards, Trump was joined as a winner by John Derek (Worst Director), Bo Derek (Worst Actress), and the film itself (tied for Worst Film). The ensemble thus swept 4 of 9 Razzies awarded that year.
Cher Time Magazine Cover Subject 1975
As a very minor addendum, but still a blow for Trump’s tremendous ego, Cher made the cover of Time Magazine in 1975 (March 17), 15 years ahead of her birth contemporary Trump who didn’t make it until1989 (January 16). Now that is a real index of celebrity. Trumped again by yet another woman.
Trump Time Magazine Cover Subject 1989
Cher’s first husband was Sonny Bono, who later served two terms in the U.S. House of Representatives (1995-1998) as the Congressman from California’s 44th CD. He died in 1998 in a skiing accident on vacation while still in office.