On March 15th, Republican and Democratic primaries were held in five populous states: Florida, Illinois, Ohio, North Carolina, and Missouri. The results serve as a kind of MegaPoll of the state of the races at the primary campaign half-time, but with millions of actual votes.
These five states have 92 electoral votes between them, and a current combined population of 60.8 million. Together they represent 18.9% of the total U.S. population (321,4 million) and 17.1% of the grand total of 538 electoral votes at stake in November.
If a swing state is defined as one with a margin of victory less than 5% between the two parties, for the Presidential Election of 2012, Florida (D +0.3%), Ohio (D +3.0%), and North Carolina (R +2.1%) qualify. Missouri was solidly Republican (+9.3%) and Illinois was even more solidly Democratic (+16.8%).
Here are the March 15, 2016 Primary Results from these five states.
In 2008 Democrats won all five states except Missouri. In 2012 Republicans won Missouri and North Carolina.
The Republicans have not fared very well in these five states as a group in the last two presidential elections, winning two states and 25 of 92 electoral votes in 2012; and just Missouri (11 electoral votes) in 2008. Republicans won 206 electoral votes in 2012, so these five states provided just 12% of their electoral vote total, despite the fact they represent 17% of all electoral votes and contain 19% of the whole U.S. population. So they contributed less than their proportionate share to the Republican cause, in a losing effort in 2012.
The average U.S. state with electoral votes (50 states and the District of Columbia) has 11 electoral votes. The March 15th states are thus average to large in size. Florida has 29 electoral votes, followed by Illinois at 20, Ohio at 18, North Carolina at 15, and Missouri at 10,
Their 2015 populations range, largest to smallest, from Florida (20 million), to Illinois (12.9 million), Ohio, (11.6 million), North Carolina (10.4 million), and the smallest of the bunch, Missouri (6.1 million).
Voter turnout in the 2012 general election was 68% for the entire country. These five states experienced near average turnout rates in North Carolina (68%) and Missouri (69%). Three had somewhat higher than average rates, Florida (71%), Illinois (70%), and Ohio (70%).
Here is a chart of some pertinent details from the final March 15th primary elections, based on the Associated Press results as reported in the New York Times today, and Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections
Republicans showed up in larger number than Democrats in four out of five of the states, all except Illinois (Democrats, 576 thousand more). The Republican turnout margin advantages, in decreasing order, were Ohio (841 thousand), Florida (652 thousand), Missouri (308 thousand), and North Carolina (9 thousand). Overall, the advantage was 1.23 million out of a total of 14.5 million votes cast, or 8.5%. Republicans received 7.89 million votes and Democrats 6.66 million.
The Republican percentage of the total 2016 primary vote in each state, in intensity order, was Ohio (63%), Missouri (60%), Florida (58%), North Carolina (50%), and Illinois (42%).
One possible measure of the engagement in the 2016 race by members of both parties is to compare the 2016 primary vote totals to the actual 2012 general election votes cast in each state. In order of greater to lesser interest are Illinois (65%), Ohio (58%), Missouri (56%), North Carolina (50%), and Florida (48%).
Two comparisons stand out. During the week prior to the primary elections, there was intense media focus and reporting on instances of violence associated with Trump rallies inside at the Crown Coliseum in Fayetteville, North Carolina (home of Fort Bragg), and Chicago, Illinois outside a Trump rally which was preemptively cancelled. Illinois had the highest engagement measure of 65%. Democrats outvoted all Republicans by 566 thousand votes, and Clinton beat Trump by 456 thousand.
In North Carolina, the engagement measure was the second lowest at 50%, There was a virtual tie for voter turnout between Republican and Democrats in 2016 following the rally violence, in what was a Republican 2012 victory state. Clinton beat Trump by 160 thousand votes.
These anti-parallel circumstances suggest anger in Democratic Illinois driving higher turnout, and a turning away by normal Republican voters in North Carolina in distaste or disapproval of campaign antics. If so, neither augers well for a Trump led Republican ticket in November.
All the same, Hillary beat Donald Trump straight-up in three out of five contests yesterday: Illinois (456 thousand), North Carolina (160 thousand), and Florida (20 thousand). Trump won in two states: Missouri (71 thousand) and Ohio (48 thousand). Combined totals for all five states show Clinton (3.71 million) beat Trump (3.20 million) handily, with a victory spread of more than half a million votes (517, 000), a margin of 16%.
In terms of their relative intra-party dominance state by state, Clinton beats Trump in every one, with victory cushions over his results running from Missouri (9 points) to Ohio (21 points). Clinton’s percentage of the Democratic vote ranges from 50% to 65% in all five tests.
The Republican primary turnout advantage didn’t boost Trump to enable him to beat Clinton even in Florida (his own second home state) or North Carolina. He did score a solid win in Missouri, but his advantage over Clinton was only 71 thousand, while the Republican bulge over Democrats was 308 thousand. This is a 75% less than expected performance from him. Finally, in Ohio he topped Clinton by 48 thousand votes, but the total Republican advantage was 841 thousand, an 18-fold difference for the Republican leading candidate. Trump’s Ohio display was a massive disappointment. The Republican Ohio win was engineered by John Kasich who seems to have slipstreamed Trump over Clinton there.
Compared to the other Republican candidates only, Trump managed, in descending performance order, Florida (45.8%), Missouri (40.9%), North Carolina (40.2%), Illinois (38.8%), and did worst in Ohio (35.6%).
So, just past the midpoint of the primary campaign, after 30 party primaries (16 open, and 14 closed), Trump has yet to break 50% against other Republicans.* On March 15th, in the latest tests, his best was 46% in what he calls his second home state (Florida). He had two wins at 40% in Missouri and North Carolina which already vote Republican, less than 40% in heavily Democratic Illinois, but performed worst of all in the critical swing state of Ohio (36%). His combined average for all five states was 40.5%.
At this moderately advanced stage of an unremitting campaign played out for the last nine months, nearly 60% of Republican voters have not supported him against a field with only two rivals left. His numbers are not really getting much better since February and early March, even though the field has dropped from eight candidates to three.
Is a steady, boring, reliable 40% his new normal? Is his Republican voter support running in a groove or a ditch? He is the leading candidate for sure, and he has a delegate lead, but he is 560 delegates short, with 1,076 left to win. He must get 53% of all the delegates remaining, while he has only won 48% of the delegates decided so far.
Thirteen of the remaining 19 primary contests are closed. Trump has lost 8 of the 14 closed primaries held up till now. His campaign does not seem to be snowballing as his rivals have dropped out, and he is still looking for a majority win in a primary. Conventional wisdom has been that Trump would gain more than his fair share of the departing candidates’ supporters. That notion seems slightly shopworn.
Trump’s primary vote numbers continue to underperform those of Republicans versus Democrats in general. He loses to Clinton one-on-one more often than not. There is little evidence of independents jumping on the Trump bandwagon in huge numbers.
The Ides of March was a day in the approximate middle of the month on the Roman Calendar, marked by religious sacrifices and a festival. On the Ides of March in 44 BC, Julius Caesar was stabbed to death at a meeting of the Senate. Caesar had been warned by a seer of the danger to him, but he made a joke in response. Four years after his death, his adopted heir (Octavian, later Augustus) staged a mass execution of political opponents, and the Roman Republic devolved into the Roman Empire.
One observance on the Ides of March, Mamuralia, “involved beating an old man dressed in animal skins and perhaps driving him from the city” as a scapegoat.
Beware the Ides of March.
Sir John Gielgud as Caesar (1953)
*Well, that’s not exactly 100% true. On March 15th, Trump did storm to a 73% victory in the CNMI (Commonwealth of Northern Mariana Islands) Republican Caucuses. Of course, percentages can be deceiving. What actually happened, real vote-wise is:
Trump took 343 votes of the 471 total cast in the CNMI Republican caucuses, giving him about 73% of the total and all 9 delegates. Ted Cruz got 113 votes, John Kasich got 10 and Marco Rubio got 5 votes.
But his smashing victory will be all for naught. CNMI is a U.S. Territory and so their votes do not count on Election Day. So, as of March 15th, Trump still hasn’t made it to 50% for the Big Show, not once. He did, however, beat Hillary 343 votes to 102 votes in the Northern Marianas.