Trump’s Fantasy Electoral Coattails (February 6, 2020)

Introduction

In the wake of the first Presidential impeachment in U.S. history where a Senator of the President’s own party voted to convict and remove him, Trump.45 is on a predictable tear for all the World to see.

The object of his internal rage and bluffoonery is one Mitt Romney, one of Utah’s two current Senators. In this age of manufactured and phantasmagorical claims masquerading as “Alternative Facts”, let’s turn for just a moment to objective reality, the kind folks base their activities of daily living decisions on, or else get run over by ignoring them.

Utah, as anyone might guess, is just about as Red a political state as you can imagine.

In the modern era of American politics (since 1950), that is the last 70 years, Utah has voted Democratic exactly once, in 1964 when Johnson beat Goldwater and carried every state west of the Mississippi except Louisiana and Arizona. That might be the reddest modern Republican Presidential voting preference record of any state; it is certainly in the Top 5. Utah is Reliable Red by any counting.

For good measure there has only been one Democratic Senator from Utah since 1959. Frank Moss served 3 terms (18 years) but lost in 1976. So for 140 total Senatorial years in Utah since 1950, Republicans have held the seats 87% of that entire period. Like I said, Red, Red, Red.

Facts on the Ground

Let’s take a look at Utah in the Trump.45 era. In 2016 Trump.45 won a merely sad plurality of Utah voters, 515,231 votes or 45.5% of the total 1.131 million votes cast.

That weak ass number does not begin to tell the whole story however. In the same 2016 Federal election for Senator in Utah, Mike Lee got 760,241 votes, or 68.2%, from the very same voters. So the Senate candidate whipped Trump by 245,000 votes, or nearly half again as many as the vaunted Trump.45 electoral engine.

A potent President is supposed to have long electoral coattails to help lift down ballot candidates into office against political crosswinds. In 2016 Utah Trump.45 limped in very badly behind his own Senate candidate by almost 25%. Whoa, Nelly!

Those Trumpified mini-coattails not only end somewhere near his armpits; they have a distinctly pinkish hue, instead of the vibrant, lusty Red Trump.45 would have you believe. That makes today’s Oval Office discourse on how Trump.45 picks ‘em to win for the Party so laughable. Not to mention the big 2017 Alabama Senate special election debacle, turning Red to Blue (in Alabama no less); then the 2018 rout of the Congressional Republican majority; and most recently loss of governorships in Kentucky (Hey there, Mitch!) and Louisiana.

But it gets worse for Trump.45’s putative influencer role. As this elegant chart from Wikipedia shows, Trump.45’s 2016 Utah performance was the worst relative showing compared to the 2012 Republican Presidential performance of any state in America.

Trump underperformed and wimped out in Utah by more than 27 points, a drop from 73% to 46%. And who, pray tell, was the 2012 Republican nominee; none other than the aforementioned Mitt Romney. Trump did proportionately worse in ultra red Utah than he did in solid blue California for God’s sake.

But is gets worse still. Mitt Romney ran for Senator in Utah of all places in 2018, having roundly and loudly criticized Trump.45 during the 2016 election, and been subsequently blessed with Trump.45’s public snubs, snipings, and private railings for the entire first two years of Trump’s administration. And what happened?

Romney won 665,215 votes, or 62.6% in the election despite Trump.45’s nasty crabbing. A total of 1.062 million votes were cast in this non-presidential election year.

The bottom line is that Mitt Romney whipped Trump.45’s ass among Utah’s highly Republican minded citizenry, beating him by 150 thousand actual votes, while total voter turnout was down by 70,000 votes.

Furthermore, if the 2018 decrease in votes due to lower turnout in non-presidential election years were proportionately added to Romney’s actual vote totals, he would have garnered another 43,800 votes, for an adjusted total of 709,000. This makes the Romney over Trump Utah blowout appear even more striking.

And as the cherry on top, as Trump.45 continues to fantasize out loud about how badly he thinks Mitt did as Republican standard bearer, it turns out in fact that in 2012 in Utah, Romney got 740,600 votes or 72.8% out of a total cast of 1.017 million.

So it turns out Romney comparatively kicked Trump.45’s electoral ass manliness in Utah in 2012 and again in 2018, in both actual votes cast, and in the percentage of total votes received. A clean sweep, and not what Donald’s dreams are made of.

Utah Votes

Romney (2012) 740,600

Trump (2016) 515,231

Romney (2018) 665,215

Just who is the Election Vote Loser here again?

Summary

We know Trump.45 is a master of political, social, and intellectual external projection. Maybe we see it here again as an open mental sore. Far from a bitter, failed rival, where it counts at home, Romney beats Trump.45 like a dog, to use one of Trump.45’s lesser colorful phrasings.

Dream on, baby. Voters in Utah know better.

No piling on of “Alternative Facts” and rants can make these hard, stubborn facts go away.

The larger lesson from a committed Red state such as Utah is that in actuality, Trump.45 has shown no discernable electoral coattails in General Elections anywhere. He is seen as a force to be reckoned with (feared, Heads on a Pike)) in Republican primaries, but in the end those elections do not count for the bottom line. They are only semi-finals, not the Super Bowl. Republicans who lash their political boats and historical reputations to Trump.45 are making a fool’s bet on the future, if they expect to have some kind of Republican electoral life after Trump, whether in 2021, or later.

To sum up, Romney kicked Trump.45’s ass twice in actual vote totals (2012 Presidential Year, 2018); and Mike Lee kicked Trump’s ass (2016 Presidential Year). Trump.45 placed a distant third (really fourth) behind both Utah Senators, and twice to Romney. And forget but Percentage of total vote; here Trump.45 wasn’t within 20 points of either man (Romney: 27 points 2012; 18 points 2018). Can you say wipeout? How bout them coattails, Bub?

I know numeracy is not one of the Trump Nation’s cardinal virtues, but maybe if Donnie Jr. Dumbass had paid some more attention in college, he might have learned to be cautious about his frivolous ravings when the actual voter numbers so painfully contradict his fond wishes.

Senator Romney is not going anywhere. Trump.45 can’t oust him from the Senate; he won’t be impeached (absurd with a Democratic majority), or expelled by the Senate (need 2/3 vote. Oops). Oh yeah, he also doesn’t have to be a Republican to stay in office right where he is; so excommunication from the Party won’t help either, except to make the Republican majority smaller by 33%. Oops, talk to Mitch about that.

There is no U.S. Constitutional provision to allow a state to recall an elected federal official such as a Senator, and there is no existing Utah law contemplating such a course of action.

Romney doesn’t face re-election until 2024, if he choses to run again, so Trump.45 will be weak or gone by then regardless.

Donny boy, you should stop inhaling the fumes.

The Voters of the Great State of Utah have spoken. They chose Romney. Trump.45 can go suck an egg.

If Trump.45 isn’t careful, he might even break his own dismal record for poorest performance ever by a Republican candidate in Utah and do worse than Barry Goldwater’s pitiful performance of 45.1% in 1964. It’s not that far to fall.

Watch your back, son; the Voters get to speak in just 271 days.

Selected References:

https://www.270towin.com/states/Utah

https://www.uen.org/utah_history_encyclopedia/e/ELECTIONS.shtml

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1964_United_States_presidential_election

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_United_States_presidential_election

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_Senate_election_in_Utah

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_United_States_Senate_election_in_Utah

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frank_Moss_(politician)

https://apnews.com/819de4649f23447aa35b1cfb811d26e6

https://www.senate.gov/reference/index_sub_items/Expulsion_vrd.htm