Introduction
Much has been made this past week of the incompetent Democratic management of the Iowa caucuses reporting mess. It is a mess, though based on good intentions poorly planned and supervised.
Still, the actual results are worth review. After all, both the Republicans and Democrats held their Presidential caucuses on the same night. Trump.45, ever the LimeLight Hogger-in-Chief couldn’t miss an opportunity in his never-ending perpetual campaign cycle.
Of course, he was personally a bit distracted in Washington setting up his next day reality show coup for what once was something called the State of the Union address to Congress, and which is now I don’t even know what to call it.
Oh, and on Monday Trump.45 was still 48 hours away from his expected bipartisan total acquittal and exoneration as only the 3rd President in American history to actually suffer the scarlet letter of impeachment, partisan or not. That didn’t turn out so well as instead he richly earned a bipartisan vote to convict by all Democrats, both Independents, and one Republican, though the total to convict was a minority of 48 votes (well short of the 67 votes required under the constitution). Hardly the glowing cap off to Trump.45’s latest Presidential crisis the White House was planning on. Anyway, screw Romney. What does he know anyway? So he got 62% of the Votes in Utah. Big Deal.
And of course, Monday’s contest was three days ahead of Trump.45’s unchristian display at the National Prayer Breakfast, where he confirmed he doesn’t have the first clue about what being a practicing Christian is all about, on live TV, and recorded for posterity. Not to mention his Stalinist hour plus long ramble in the East Room later that same day about how illegitimate and witch-hunty the whole thing was, and how enemies would pay, just you wait and see. While the spineless enablers in his Cabinet and among Republican Senators and Representatives stood and cheered his barely contained diatribes.
He embodied his motto of “Never Admit, Never Apologize” no matter what. Trump.45 absurdly still trumpets that he did nothing wrong. Even the cheering multitudes in the East Room know that is a crock of BS (By the way, in another highly anticipated Presidential first, Trump.45 also declared on National TV for the world to see and hear his definitive and evocative Bullshit assessment). On daytime TV, direct from the White House, for all you Pearl Clutchers insulted by Pelosi’s Tuesday night speech rip, and/or Shakira’s super bowl delightful halftime entertainment performance.
But wait, there’s more. Trump.45 was so not worried about the impeachment hoax and its resolution, first thing Friday he is floating “expungement” of the Articles of Impeachment as a good idea, even though that is not an actual Thing. In other words, it has no Constitutional basis, i.e. FAKE NEWS. As if to get warmed up, in typical cowardly Trump.45 style, he left town for an event and had two impeachment witnesses fired, Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman (and his brother) of the National Security Council staff and European Union Ambassador Gordon Sondland. Trump.45’s character is so debased he can’t even do his own dirty work, and fire a man face-to-face. A Trump.45 advisor called it “flushing out the pipes.” How appropriately scatological this is for Trump Think monitors.
But back to Monday’s victorious Iowa Republican primary and Trump.45’s lead up by proxy. There was a veritable plethora of the usual suspects on hand to Bless Our Dear Leader and keep things on track. Trump.45’s sons Donny Jr. Dumbass, Eric, wives Lara and Vanessa (ex-wife 2018), Trump.45 Cabinet members Ben Carson (HUD) and Wilbur Ross (Commerce), Campaign Manager Brad Parscale, and Republican Congresspersons Jim Jordan, Greg Pence (VP Mike Pence’s brother), Mark Meadows, Elise Stefanik, as well as Matt Schlapp (American Conservative Union), Corey Lewandowski, Ken Blackwell, and who knows who else.
The week before the caucus election, Mike Pence got in on the bus tour act for a couple days, culminating in A Thursday Des Moines rally with the Big Dog himself on January 30.
Anyway, lots of Mega Star quality firepower, from the top of the heap (duo dittos) and the best surrogates all descending on Iowa’s 99 counties, meant to make a preemptive statement and get the nation’s first caucus off to a flying start on the March to Trumpian Re-election 2020.
Except…..
What Happened in Iowa 2020?
It almost gets boring to keep reminding folks that Facts Matter, and that in the end actual votes trump punditry and self-soothing dreams of conquest. Nevertheless…
Trump.45 ran away from the Republican field with 31,464 votes or 97.1% of the total. Also-never-really-rans Bill Weld, Joe Walsh, and Other lumped together scored 925 votes out of the Grand Total Republican tally of 32,389 votes.
You see a sea of shining red drenching the entire state of Iowa. Well and good, but how does this stack up against say the Iowa Republican Primary in 2016, the last time Trump.45 ventured on the battlefield?
Turns out, not all that well. In 2016 Trump.45 notched 45,427 (24.3%) of the votes, before he was President of Anything, much less a Conquering Hero as in 2020. Furthermore, he only came in second place to Lyin’ Ted Cruz resting at 51,666 (27.6%). And Little Marco Rubio was yapping at his heels at 43,165 (23,1%). Worst of all, Republican total votes in the 2016 Iowa caucuses were 186,874.
A little elementary math tells us that the Republican vote celebrating Trump.45 himself in 2020 was 13,963 less than in 2016 when he was still brand new and not a political juggernaut. Total Republican turnout in 2020 was down 154,485 or 82.6%.
A 4/5 off sale!! OMG, this is quite a bargain friends. Remember, the Impeachment Trial Hoax was in recess on Monday, there was no NFL game, and High Wattage Trump.45 surrogates were physically running around the state to rile the Base and goose the vote. First actual voter contest in 2020 (yes, I know it was a caucus. Still it was real voters making decisions, not fibbing for polls and pollsters).
Trump.45 had other stuff on his mind Monday, outlined above, but still this mediocre showing must have given him some Mega Heartburn. Spoiled the whole 2020 Campaign rollout script. His people, those he has done so much for: Iowa farmers, manufacturing workers, evangelicals, people with 401(k)s, and blue collar boomers stayed home in droves. How ungrateful of them. And he had sent his best substitutes to appeal to their patriotism and can do American spirit.
Were they bored with his show? Was it Season 4 of the Apprentice Reality Universe writ large where the novelty and interest were wearing thin, and the ratings tumbled? Say it ain’t so, Joe.
But there are other sources of data to explore. Morning Consult has a wonderful political resource on the web called “Tracking Trump: The President’s Standing Across America.” This is a monthly long running state by state approval poll that has captured Trump.45’s Iowa status since the inception. Trump.45 has been continuously underwater in Iowa since May 2017 (33 months), and the gap is widening. His latest measure as of January 2020 is Down 9. Since he took office his net approval in Iowa has decreased 18 points. He started in office in January 2017 at Plus 9 in Iowa.
We can also review how Iowans have voted in recent Federal General elections to see how Trump.45 is faring just now. See the attached table below. For 2016 we have a Federal Electoral Trifecta; a Senate race and a full set of U.S. House races to go along with the Presidential race where Trump.45 was running.
Iowans are steady voters and a total of more than 1.5 million votes were cast in each of the three race categories. No surprise that the Presidential race garnered the highest total, with the Senate race not far behind (25,000 vote less), and the combined House totals a little bit less still (50,000 fewer than for President; about 3%).
As any Trumper will proclaim, Trump.45 WON Iowa in 2016. What they are less likely to know, or crow about, is that once again Trump.45 exhibited no coattails at all, except if you believe in Negative Coattails. That is Trump.45 drafted in on longtime Senator Grassley’s front running total of more than 900,000 votes in Iowa in 2016; more than 125,000 votes greater than Trump.45 persuaded Iowans to give him (about 15.6% more). The combined House Republican vote count also beat Trump.45. Listen to the incomparable Supremes sing it: Oowee, Baby!
In plain English, Trump.45 was a drag on fellow Republicans standing for Federal Office in 2016.
Or listen to the Sonny Terry Who Baby version, if you prefer. as I do.
There is more. There was a jump in Iowa voting from the non-Presidential year 2014 to Trump.45’s triumph in 2016 of more than 400,000 voters. In 2014 and 2016 Republicans won 3 of 4 House races, so they held steady and Trump.45 was irrelevant to the outcome. For the past several cycles Republicans received around 52%-53% of the votes for the major races. The big exception was Grassley who hauled in 60%, and Trump.45 who lagged behind at 51%.
This reddish Republican statewide advantage of 5 points or so is supported by the widely used and respected Cook Political Reports Partisan Voter Index (PVI) based on the previous two presidential election voting results (2012, 2016) which ranks Iowa at R+3.
In 2018 there was a different story. Trump.45 barnstormed around the country and touted his tax cuts, immigration crackdown, massive tax cuts, deregulation, and great trade deals to make the mid-term election all about his wonderful agenda and successes, while Iowans flat tuned him out. He held one of his signature rallies in Council Bluffs on October 9, 2018, less than a month before election day (November 6).
So what happened? The total statewide Republican House vote in Iowa dropped by 200,000, their percentage of the votes cast declined to 46.5%, a drop of more than 7 percentage points in just two years, in the middle of Trump.45’s Absolute Wonderfulness. And Republicans who had formerly had an advantage of 3:1 over Democrats in House seats, lost 2 more and fell into a minority position, with only Steve King hanging on (50.2%), in CD IA-04, which has a Cook Partisan Index of R+11.
The same Steve King who was later stripped by House Republican leadership of his Committee assignments for his unacceptable behavior (white supremacist rhetoric), leaving Iowa Republicans out in the proverbial cold for any House legislative influence, since King had formerly served on the Judiciary, Agriculture, and Small Business Committees until January 14, 2019.
Meanwhile the Total vote in Iowa for the non-Presidential year only dropped 200,000 instead of the expected 400,000 based on the 2014 to 2016 comparison. Since the Republican vote totals dropped 200,000 from 2016 to 2018, the Democrats only lost virtually none of their share for the non-Presidential differential. This is just plain awful news for Republicans, headlined by the Wonderful Trump.45, who is not kicking any Democratic ass in Iowa lately, so far as actual votes are concerned, whatever mumbo-jumbo Trump.45 orally commits.
O.K., so the well oiled, organized, well funded, disciplined Trump.45 campaign rollout for the nation’s first primary was a bust. Stop harping on it. The Blessed Leader doesn’t like to hear any negativity, Man.
What About the Democrats?
The Democrats muffed their attempt to introduce both popular preference counts, and second alignment counts to further illuminate the caucus delegate selection process. The reporting system was certainly screwed up and delayed, but the essential results have now been delivered. The Media has been fueling the narrative about how incompetent it all was. Except, for the first time we have actual vote totals to compare Democrats and Republicans both caucusing in Iowa on the same day in 2020, instead of the prior delegate equivalents from 1,765 precincts.
And Lo and Behold, what do you know! The Democrats came out to vote: 176,436 of them, compared to 32,389. No, that is not a typo. The Democrats had 5 ½ times more voters in Iowa on February 3, 2020 than the Republicans, after the state was blasted with high power Trump surrogates, including the inner family, and the Bountiful Gift of a Des Moines full throated rally by the Man himself (and faithful sidekick Mike, the VP) just 4 days before the vote. You’re kidding right? Sorry, Facts are Stubborn Things.
And the good news keeps on coming. The 2016 Democratic caucus turnout in Iowa was 171,517. In 2020 it was 176,436, just a small increase (about 3%). Meanwhile across town the Republican voters fell off a cliff dropping from 186,874 to just 32,382, a decline of more than 82%.
Individual candidate vote comparisons are also helpful to consider. See the chart below. In 2020, the Magnificent Trump.45 placed 4th out of 5 among the top vote getters, beaten by Sanders, Buttigieg, and Warren. Using 2020 actual voting numbers from this week, the top 5 Democrats combined received a bit more than 5 times as many votes as Trump.45, in the immediate afterglow of one of his signature rallies.
Let me repeat that for the math challenged. Trump hustled himself to a 4th place finish in Iowa where actual voters showed up, despite all the perks of incumbency.
He was beaten, head to head, by a socialist, a woman, and a nowheresville small town mayor. The Most Powerful Man in the World did a voting face plant. That’s no recipe for an Emmy, an Oscar, or a Presidential Re-election.
Election day is 9 months away, and Trump.45 has proven himself to be a vicious and effective campaigner, who no doubt has many further tricks up his sleeve. Yet, for a Master Show Manager, this wrinkle to start Iowa has got to burn him inside, up to the steam coming out of his ears temperature stage. He left it to his minions, and they fouled up a perfectly good advance scenario.
That may have something to do with the ‘Computer Fried the Results’ distraction that Trump.45 was so quick to lay on the credulous social media magnifiers, and which was gobbled up by the compliant media, mainstream and otherwise. Over the last two days that meme hasn’t proven to have sturdy enough legs, though it hasn’t died yet, so today we have the new ‘Expungement’ balloon to divert attention.
Summary
The fact is, evidence suggests Iowans are not as enamored of Trump.45 as they were in 2016, and he has been on a slow slide since taking office, with a steep drop in 2018. Pulling out his best moves for 2020 didn’t get a rise out of his base, despite clear signals to show the flag on election day. Maybe the bulk of Iowans who responded to him in 2016 are tired of the drama, or they just don’t care about his Twitter antics anymore.
Trump.45 has a rally scheduled in Manchester on Monday February 10, the night before the New Hampshire primary. He will undoubtedly be at it again. We will know more next Wednesday.
The take away lesson for American paying attention is not that the Democrats muffed an attempt at greater transparency (they did), but rather what a massive flop Trump.45’s first real voter encounter in 2020 was, despite his A Game resources.
Pundit talking heads should do a little more thinking and analysis, and a little less listening to their honey smooth voices filling the airwaves with empty mental calories.
The 2020 story continues.
Selected Sources:
https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/07/politics/alex-vindman-donald-trump-impeachment/index.html
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/02/03/us/elections/results-iowa-caucus-republicans.html
https://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/results/primaries/iowa
https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump-2/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Iowa
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Iowa
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Iowa
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_United_States_Senate_election_in_Iowa
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_Senate_election_in_Iowa
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steve_King
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/01/31/unexpected-joy-trump-rally-iowa-109864
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Iowa_Democratic_caucuses
https://cookpolitical.com/pvi-0
https://cookpolitical.com/index.php/introducing-2017-cook-political-report-partisan-voter-index
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cook_Partisan_Voting_Index
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QeoUS5cu5tA
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EOHGc9O7mVc
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_CgtYDD6kVo