Older readers will remember (most with guilty pleasure) the politico-military thriller “Seven Days in May” by Fletcher Knebel and Charles Bailey, published in 1962. It was shortly (1964) made into a very popular movie starring Kirk Douglas (sadly, so recently departed), Bert Lancaster, Frederic March, Ava Gardner, Edmond O’Brien, and Martin Balsam, among others.
The plot involves a deadly intricate, inside attempted coup among U.S. military officers to usurp the Presidency. A sort of fictional deep state conspiracy that predates any of the current right-wing nut fantasies. See more below. *
Watch this extended trailer for the 1964 movie:
The plot was foiled, due to a fair helping of luck and fortunate circumstances, and the nation’s democracy saved. One primary difference in the previous fictional imagining was the higher degree of literacy demonstrated in the novel and on screen, compared to the vacuous and incoherent efforts of actual current highest-ranking government officials working for Trump.45, much to our country’s detriment. But that’s a larger story for another time.
So, a Hat’s Off shout out to a classic American entertainment effort 60 years ago.
Trump and the Stock Market Dragon Called Dow Jones (DJIA)
It is clear by now that Trump.45 has no interest or aptitude for governing all of America or uniting anyone who doesn’t already drink the poison Kool Aid of his Love. His re-election strategy is mainly a re-do on steroids of his 2016 approach, backed by the solid economic performance which he was blessed with, hasn’t screwed up seriously, and ridden for all it’s worth, at least until now.
We have all heard the mantra Stock Market, Stock Market, 250-plus highest finishes of all time; record low unemployment, even for Blacks and Browns (all boats float in good times); and the massive tax cuts laser focused on high dollar persons and corporations. And so on, and so on.
We have heard the boasts of $7 trillion, $10 trillion, $12 trillion added to our economy represented by the total market capitalization, even though real economists don’t count that way or use it to measure administration effectiveness. When’s the last time you could pay your light bill or buy groceries with Amazon’s or Apple’s increased stock price. Positively warms your heart cockles, doesn’t it?
As recently as 10 days ago, the Dow Jones average of 30 industrials (the most widely quoted stock index, though not the most accurate one) was trading at historic highs, on a pace to break 30,000, compared to the paltry 20,000 (19,795 open) or thereabouts it was when Trump.45 actually took office in January 2017.
Trump.45 has placed his bets all in on the simple approach. Vote for the Stock Market Status Indicator, and I will Set You Free.
So, it is instructive to look at the Seven Days of February 2020 stock index performance on his prospects.
What the Stock Market Has Done for Seven Days Running
These are the numbers. Damn, there’s a lot of red ink. Here’s the short version. There have been 7 trading sessions, without a break, of daily losses. The entire last week has been a steep downward Trump Dump. As multiple experts have pointed out, there is no market panic, but rather a rational sell off reflecting consumer and economic uncertainty, fueled by Trump.45’s current stewardship.
The greatest single day decline (in points) in more than a century of Dow History. The worst week since the economic tsunami of failure in 2008 and the inciting housing and banking crisis. A one-week loss in the Dow of more than 12%, officially marking a Market Correction (in only five days). No intraweek semi-recovery on any day. A five-day loss of 3,583 points in the Dow.
While exact numbers are somewhat hard to unravel in real time for the entire stock market cap, experts said Tuesday that a 1,900-point Dow decline wiped out nearly $1.7 trillion dollars of wealth. That means, of course, that the week’s total loss of 3,583 points vanished quick as a blink $3.2 trillion dollars of American wealth. Since the pre-Seven Days total valuation was roughly $30-35 trillion, that also means that 10% of the wealth in America represented by the Stock Market just went up in smoke, without so much as a how do you do.
The Blue-Collar Boom Trump.45 prattles about just took a serious gut punch for 2020. No doubt the American economy will improve over time, but that is small cold comfort for those rock-solid base 55-60 year-old Trump.45 voters who might depend on their oh so unguaranteed 401Ks to fund their retirements and golden years in the near future. Forget about student debt issues.
Of course, a chunk of Stock Market wealth is owned by non-Americans, like foreign nationals, and Russian oligarchs, but this is also news of little use to ordinary Americans banking on Trump.45’s promises (You know: Promises Made, Promises Kept).
If the last Seven Days of February were the end of it, oh well soldier on. Here is where the tale becomes less sanguine. We are not at the end, but the beginning of the near-term turmoil.
As a brief aside on the perpetual Trump vs Obama (I’m Better Than You) front, Trump.45 has now again permanently vaulted himself into second place historically on another marker. The worst stock market drop during Obama’s eight years took place as he inherited a financial disaster in 2009 immediately on taking office, but too bad for him. He was President; he takes the Rap. From January 20, 2009 until March 9, 2009, a period of seven weeks, the Dow dropped from 8279.63 to a low of 6547.05, a loss of 1,733 points, before it headed north to add 12,000 points when Obama left office.
Compare and contrast. Trump.45 has lost in 1 week (5 days) 3.583 points or more than twice as much as Obama (1,733) suffered at his worst over 7 weeks.
What has Caused this Market Correction?
To hear Trump.45 himself tell it, amplified by Kudlow, Mulvaney at CPAC today, and the right-wing media amplifiers it is (pick several) the Democrats, the Deep State, fear of Sanders, a Do-Nothing Congress and whatever else you can throw at the problem. In fact, it is absolutely everything, except most definitely not anything to do whatsoever with Carona (sp.) Virus (COVID-19), ‘cause Trump.45 says so.
COVID-19 Nasty Little Virus
Ask him.
Except the actual Market makers just don’t buy it. How do we know?
We have a perfect little real time experiment with factual results to guide us. Trump.45 himself gave a ceremonial and substantive press briefing to the whole nation at 6:30 PM Wednesday, flanked by his Corona Czar Pence, and his top-tier political crisis management officials, and even two qualified and respected doctors from CDC. It ran an hour, Trump.45 gave the top lines, and there were encomiums from Pence, Azar and short real presentations from Schuchat and Fauci.
The goal was to reassure the Markets and America that America (meaning Trump.45) was on top of this, there were only 15 case and soon to be just 5, and Trump.45 had stopped the pesky little virus right in its tracks by imposing a partial travel ban to China at the end of January. Ipso facto. Magical thinking
Basically, the whole show was a big El Flopo. On Monday and Tuesday, the Dow Jones lost 1,911 points. On Wednesday anticipating a strong Presidential briefing and statement later in the day, the Dow paused and fell only 123 points. On Thursday and Friday, as the Markets chewed over Trump.45’s Proclamation of Viral Non-Inevitability and Other Good News the previous evening in near-prime time, the Dow declined another 1,548 points. Barely a dent in the incline of the slide. Another 2-day loss of a cool $1.4 trillion of American Wealth on Trump.45’s watch, after he put his foot down the night before with all his people there to shine him on (except Schuchat and Fauci).
What happens Next?
We have become used to a nuclear fission type acceleration of news cycles under Trump.45. The COVID-19 situation, rapidly expanding and accelerating, is no exception. Tonight, there are 60 countries which have reported cases. China now accounts for only 30% of new cases, and there are two more untraced community cases in California and Oregon. Total U.S patients tested is still less than 500 (a truly pitiful number), since South Korea is testing 12,000 people per day. Less than half of the U.S. states have any approved test kits. The entire state of California, with 33 cases (most of any U.S. state) has only 200 or so approved test kits on hand. Trump.45’s CDC and FDA logistical administrative screw-ups with testing are a critical flaw in retarding a potent nationwide response to this rising public health challenge.
Dr Tony Fauci, Director NIAID, Pre-Eminent Infectious Disease Expert
Today we learned that Dr Fauci, the premier U.S government infectious disease expert for the past 30 years had his five (cover the waterfront) Sunday talk show appearances cancelled, and 26-year-old Katie Waldman (wife of Stephen Miller) is now in charge of all Public communications per Mike Pence. She is entirely without any discernable qualifications for this task. That is Just So Special.
[Addendum: Dr. Fauci on Saturday said he had not been muzzled, though his Sunday TV bookings were indeed cancelled, and he had to submit new clearance requests, which were granted, after the public outcry. Fauci is a truth-teller, but he said this with Trump.45 grumpily standing behind his left shoulder on national TV. It doesn’t change the actual fact that no 26-year old press flack should have any clearance or approval role for the vastly experienced Director of NIAID to make sober public statements about his area of expertise during a health crisis. She and Pence’s office simply have nothing to add to Fauci’s proper role. Period. End of Story.]
We don’t know what Monday will bring, much less tomorrow and Sunday. Anybody betting on good news, or that Trump.45 can talk the virus into submission is frankly on Mental Crack. There’s no Miracle in Anybody’s Pocket for the next several weeks, at least.
The Market will gauge Trump.45’s short term competence and management for real on its own terms, starting again on Monday at 9:30 AM.
What’s A Body to Do in the Meantime?
For those who make life decisions using truth and facts, there are however some personal steps that are consistent with sound established Public Health policy to follow in the days ahead.
- Wash Your Hands, Wash Your Hands, Wash Your Hands
- Have Hand Sanitizer (60% alcohol) at Work Desk, in Car, and Home
- Skip the Surgical Masks, They Don’t Protect You
- Cover Up, Cough and Sneeze in Your Sleeve
- Minimize Self Touching of Face, Eyes, and Mouth
- Elbow Bumps, No Hand Shaking
- If You Have a Temp, and Don’t Feel Well, Stay Home
- Reduce Unnecessary Long-Distance Travel
- Consult with Authorities About Potential School and Church Response Plans
- Ask at Work about Telecommuting Opportunities
- Stock Up on Chronic Prescription Meds (90 days)
- Look in on Elders and Disabled Family Members
- Don’t Panic. Take Sensible Reasonable Precautions Before You Need To
That’s real Public Health Advice folks, advice you can take to the bank.
We will make it through, even if Official Administration Washington is Weeks Late, Billions Short, and Generally Screwed Up by Putting Top Bozos in Charge, above the actual scientists and doctors who know that, you know, science type stuff, to keep us safe.
Selected References:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seven_Days_in_May
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HWL06waOAGw
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EDJI/history/
https://www.niaid.nih.gov/about/office-director
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthony_S._Fauci
https://www.cdc.gov/about/organization/orgChart.htm
https://www.cdc.gov/about/leadership/leaders/pdd.html
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/04/coronavirus-quaratine-travel-110750
*”Seven Days in May”. From the Wikipedia entry:
Seven Days in May is a 1964 American political thriller film about a military-political cabal’s planned takeover of the United States government in reaction to the president’s negotiation of a disarmament treaty with the Soviet Union. The picture was directed by John Frankenheimer; starring Burt Lancaster, Kirk Douglas, Fredric March, and Ava Gardner; with the screenplay written by Rod Serling based on the novel of the same name by Fletcher Knebel and Charles W. Bailey II, published in September 1962.
The book was written in late 1961 and into early 1962, during the first year of the Kennedy administration, reflecting some of the events of that era. In November 1961, President John F. Kennedy accepted the resignation of vociferously anti-Communist General Edwin Walker who was indoctrinating the troops under his command with personal political opinions and had described former President Harry S. Truman, former United States Secretary of State Dean Acheson, former First Lady Eleanor Roosevelt and other recent still-active public figures as Communist sympathizers. Although no longer in uniform, Walker continued to be in the news as he ran for Governor of Texas and made speeches promoting strongly right-wing views. In the film version of Seven Days in May, Fredric March, portraying the narrative’s fictional President Jordan Lyman, mentions General Walker as one of the “false prophets” who were offering themselves to the public as leaders. (John F. Kennedy assassin Lee Harvey Oswald purportedly fired rifle shots into the home of General Walker in April 1963.)
As they collaborated on the novel, Knebel and Bailey, who were primarily political journalists and columnists, also conducted interviews with another controversial military commander, the newly appointed Air Force Chief of Staff, Curtis LeMay, who was angry with Kennedy for refusing to provide air support for the Cuban rebels in the Bay of Pigs Invasion.
President Kennedy had read Seven Days in May shortly after its publication and believed the scenario as described could actually occur in the United States. According to Frankenheimer in his director’s commentary, production of the film received encouragement and assistance from Kennedy through White House Press Secretary Pierre Salinger, who conveyed to Frankenheimer Kennedy’s wish that the film be produced and that, although the Pentagon did not want the film made, the President would arrange to be visiting Hyannis Port for a weekend when the film needed to shoot outside the White House.
Plot
The story is set in 1974, ten years in the future at the time of the film’s 1964 release, and the Cold War is still a problem (in the 1962 book, the setting was May 1974 after a stalemated war in Iran). U.S. President Jordan Lyman has recently signed a nuclear disarmament treaty with the Soviet Union, and the subsequent ratification by the U.S. Senate has produced a wave of dissatisfaction, especially among Lyman’s opposition and the military, who believe the Soviets cannot be trusted.
A Pentagon insider, United States Marine Corps Colonel “Jiggs” Casey (the Director of the Joint Staff), stumbles on evidence that the Joint Chiefs of Staff, led by the charismatic Air Force General James Mattoon Scott, intend to stage a coup d’etat to remove Lyman and his cabinet in seven days. Under the plan, a secret Army unit known as ECOMCON (Emergency COMmunications CONtrol) will seize control of the country’s telephone, radio, and television networks, while Congress is prevented from implementing the treaty. Although personally opposed to Lyman’s policies, Casey is appalled by the plot and alerts Lyman, who gathers a circle of trusted advisors to investigate: Secret Service White House Detail Chief Art Corwin, Treasury Secretary Christopher Todd, advisor Paul Girard, and Senator Raymond Clark of Georgia.
Casey uses the pretense of a social visit to General Scott’s former mistress to ferret out potential secrets that can be used against Scott, in the form of indiscreet letters. Meanwhile, the alcoholic Clark is sent to Fort Bliss near El Paso, Texas, to locate the secret base, and Girard leaves for the Mediterranean to obtain a confession from Vice Admiral Barnswell, who declined to participate in the coup. Girard gets the confession in writing, but is killed when his return flight crashes, while Clark is taken captive when he reaches the secret base. However, Clark convinces the base’s deputy commander, Colonel Henderson, a friend of Casey’s to not be a party to the coup and to help him escape. They reach Washington, DC, but Henderson is abducted during a moment apart from Clark and confined in a military stockade.
Lyman calls Scott to the White House to demand that he and the other plotters resign. Scott denies the existence of the plot, but takes the opportunity to denounce Lyman and the treaty. Lyman argues that a coup in America would prompt the Soviets to make a preemptive strike. Scott maintains that the American people are behind him. Lyman is on the verge of confronting Scott with the letters obtained from Scott’s mistress when he decides against it and allows Scott to leave.
Scott meets the other three Joint Chiefs, demanding they stay in line and reminding them that Lyman does not seem to have concrete evidence of their plot. Somewhat reassured, the others agree to continue the plan to appear on television and radio simultaneously on the next day to denounce Lyman. However, Lyman first holds a press conference, at which he is prepared to announce that he has fired the four men. As Lyman is speaking, Barnswell’s hand-written confession, recovered from the plane crash, is handed to him and he delays the conference for half an hour. In the interim, copies of the confession are delivered to Scott and the other plotters. As the broadcast of the press conference resumes, Scott prepares to go forward with the coup anyway, but then gives up when he hears President Lyman announce that the other three plotters have tendered their resignations. The film ends with an address by Lyman to American people on the country’s future, and leaves unanswered the question of General Scott’s fate.