It is tiring and disheartening to watch the COVID-19 numbers of illness and deaths spin ever higher and too often faster and faster. It is worse when the CIC is out to lunch and spinning ignorant fairy tales to no good public purpose. Yet here we are.
We have already commented that Louisiana’s Governor, following sound public health advice, invoked his considerable executive powers early and often, in perhaps the strongest suite of public health control measures in any US state. And he did it before the Wave hit. First state case: March 9. Multiple orders starting with Declaration of Public Health Emergency (March 11), school closures (March 13), culminating in Statewide Lockdown March 22.
We have been waiting and hoping that stiff early measures would help spare Louisiana from a portion of the illness and death racing across the country while the current Administration has bumbled, fumbled and excused itself. National actions are coming late and half-heartedly , and only in response to public outrage and condemnation. Sort of like pushing a jackass to move for his own good when he is otherwise occupied.
Among other things, the Louisiana State Department of Health has been magnificently transparent, providing detailed daily updates with rock steady efficiency and reliability, even with limited resources, during a time of public health crisis, when they have actual medical work to do. They deserve praise and recommendation. When this is over, they deserve thanks, public recognition, and a raise in pay. They have not tried to sugarcoat or distract from the increasing toll.
The data picture of COVID-19 in Louisiana has been a bleak one. We have been on a steeply rising epidemic curve with potentially overwhelming consequences for our medical system and thus for our citizens.
At the same time, as we worry about our friends and neighbors, we also hope and take time to pray that wise public health actions will make a substantial difference.
Here is a suite of data and charts updated today at 12 PM to give us the latest snapshot of current conditions. It is so easy to try and draw comforting impressions from limited data. The facts will out. At the same time, these are the facts (without top down spin).
This information is complete for Louisiana going back to literal Day 1 of the pandemic.
We have 3,540 cases and 151 deaths in our state. There are 1,127 in hospital and 380 on in critical condition on ventilators. That is the current tally.
What we crave is evidence that the scourge is moderating. That the number of new cases and deaths each day are fewer than found the day before. That the epidemic curve is slowing, blunting and flattening here. It isn’t in our country as a whole. Can we provide some proof here that following science-based methods works?
This is the primary basic graph. What we need to see the height of each day’s blue column trend down. As it shrinks there are fewer and fewer new cases each day to strain our acute medical care system and wear out our nurses and doctors.
From March 13 until yesterday there was no break in the sharp upward trend. Today there is a substantial drop in new cases reported. Based on a linear curve extrapolation there should have been about 600 new cases in Louisiana since yesterday. Actually, there were 225.
Our medical system is stressed to handle the load, but it is not overwhelmed at this point, so there is no breakdown in reporting to explain the drop. Inspection of the annotated graph shows that for the last 3 weeks there has been some drop off in reporting from each Saturday to the corresponding Sunday. So it is again. Each of the last 2 weeks saw an increase on the following Monday back to the previous curve of increase.
[Note: There was a DOH data reporting adjustment from twice daily to once a day at 12 PM starting on March 22. As a result, the data for three days (March 22, March 23, and March 24) are anomalous in timing until comparable 24-hour reporting periods was restored on March 25. Interpretations based only on these three days should be made cautiously.]Hope rises, and tomorrow may tell the interim tale. Is this a wavelet or an epidemic faltering as it attacks our state? We could use the better news to reinforce our joint social compact to stay at home and protect our neighbors and strangers alike.
Even if our prayers and common public health actions are rewarded, there is still a heavy COVID-19 problem to bear. Flattening the curve means the added number of new illnesses each day is going down. But there are still more people to care for than the day before. It doesn’t mean anyone is recovered. But it means we would be more and more likely to weather the epidemic storm intact, without suffering more fundamental damage to our medical, social, and economic systems.
There is no false hope this good turn would be a time to relax our current lockdown conditions. The stay at home order will need to remain in place for at least several more weeks (likely minimum through the middle of May) or else we will reignite the viral fire here. It means we have a measure of control over spread, when everyone does their job.
It would provide a real-life lesson to laggard states, like Florida, if they are smart enough to take heed. Otherwise, they can keep themselves inside their own toxic borders and leave us be. As ye sow, so shall ye reap. Lax Controls, More Sickness.
Fingers crossed, but Eyes Wide Open for Data.
For scientific reasons, I want to see the next 2-3 days for pattern recognition. As a resident in Louisiana I earnestly hope the scourge is beginning to lift. COVID-19 get your bad self on out of here; we got ready together quicker than most.
To boil it all down to crass Trumpian terms:
Today Louisiana’s Numbers Don’t Suck.
Why is this yutz holding a photo op (March 27, 2020) to send 1,000 hospital beds to New York when the state has 60,000 (12,000 hospitalized) cases as of today, doubling every 3 days? We need the Army, the Army Corps of Engineers, and the National Guard working harder in New York. They are faster, more efficient, less expensive, and have vastly greater medical surge capacity than one floating behemoth. Those pictures aren’t as pretty. The 1,000 beds (for only non COVID-19 patients by the way) are very welcome, but it is a cupful in a large bucket. Trump.45 could get another Big Beautiful Ship to New York in oh about 4 years, if he stepped on it. The deathly ill will be past help then, but they will no doubt be grateful (or at least family survivors in their stead).
