Sad to say, we no longer have to wait weeks or months to accumulate data intelligence on this ever swiftly moving pandemic. The data accumulates like a blizzard, hour upon hour. Daily updates are insufficient. The best data reporters have been forced, and have been able to make updated numbers available around the clock, most several times per day.
They deserve our great thanks and professional praise. They include the wonderful, and actually very smart people engaged at the Johns Hopkins COVID-19 Tracking database, the New York Times COVID-19 Database Team, and the volunteers at the COVID Tracking Project, among the very best of so many folks engaged in providing accurate public health information.
It borders on a crime that this extraordinary effort is so critical, as our Federal government whose sworn duty it is to provide such surveillance and protection has been politically crippled and disgracefully failed to perform its mission. No disrespect to the working scientists, up to the level of Dr. Fauci. Above that grade the effort has been rotten and continues so.
You cannot see what you do not look for
As the US contribution to the entire World’s burden of COVID-19 grows apace, there has been in the last 10 days a breakthrough quantity of COVID-19 testing in our country to begin to define the contours of our expanding problem. No thanks to the Administration. This bust out in testing has been driven, organized, and forced by state Executives, against haphazard pushback and broken promises at daily news conferences filled with Hot Air from the middle of February until about March 15.
At last we have some testing quantity.
Based on the evolving evidence from other nation’s efforts to control the viral pandemic scourge, perhaps the leading democratic government example is that of South Korea. That nation quickly achieved a test rate of about 70 per 10,000 residents.
It is also time to stop using massive raw numbers to gauge our own progress. The proper comparison is tests per defined population unit, so that vast differences in country population are properly controlled for.
We can do that state by state in the US, now that there is more than a trickle of test results to look at.
The US COVID-19 Tracking Mashup from March 29 Onwards
In a set of five charts we have assembled and combined authoritative current daily data from reliable sources to provide a snapshot of where we stand inter alia. The charts combine state population data, number of COVID-19 cases diagnosed in each, the number of tests performed, and the number of positive tests. Synthetic rates per 10,000 residents are computed for a Baker’s Dozen (a Louisiana lagniappe total of 13) of the heaviest hit and politically interesting states.
These 13 states in the mix, by population size, are California, Texas, Florida, New York, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Ohio, Georgia, Michigan, New Jersey, Washington, Indiana, and Louisiana, as well as total US data for a benchmark comparison.
Virus Don’t Care, but for those paying close attention, there are 5 states with Republican Governors, and 8 of these states went Red in 2016. So, we have Blue-Blue, Blue-Red, and Red-Red components in the mix.
The states include 11 of the 13 largest US states by population, so a substantial fraction of the entire country. Logic would dictate that this list would also likely include the 10 states with the most cases and highest tests completed.
The list established, now we can inspect and compare the group for anomalies and hints about differential state responses to COVID-19 and the resulting virus patterns of state by state infection and spread.
- Chart 01: States by Population Rank
- Chart 02: States by Total COVID-19 Cases
- Chart 03: States by Total COVID-19 Tests Completed
- Chart 04: States by Population Testing Rate per 10,000 Residents
- Chart 05: States by COVID-19 Population Illness Rate per 10,000 Residents
All as of March 29, 2020 in the evening.
First Peek and Reaction
Chart 01: States by Population Rank
The main outliers are the inclusion of Indiana and Louisiana which are both middle size states (Louisiana is the US median state by population). Of course, Louisiana is of special interest to the author, and the subject of media scrutiny as a recent Hot Spot. Indiana is the Pence Central locus.
One easy way to insect/compare the charts is to look at how different the list rank is from the state’s actual US population rank. The greater the spread up or down from population size, the more interesting the state’s circumstances may be for further study. Quick and Easy Cajun Problem Spotting.
Chart 02: States by Total COVID-19 Cases
New York, New Jersey, Michigan, Washington, Indiana. and Louisiana pop out in a bad way as they have more absolute case numbers than their respective population numbers would suggest, by several rank spots. They are hotter locations than we would expect, all things being relatively equal across the US. Louisiana is the biggest jumper in the group from 25 to 8. Point Taken.
On the flip, to fa irst eyeball inspection Texas and Ohio seem to be in better shape than would be expected total case-wise. And a little less fortunate, but on the positive side would be Pennsylvania and Georgia. That sounds pretty good.
Chart 03: States by Total COVID-19 Tests Completed
The Big Winners in this group for large testing absolute numbers are New York, Washington, Florida, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania. Each state has performed more than 30,000 tests so far. That is a very good thing. Here Louisiana is 5th, a major step up for a middle size state.
But more is revealed by a comparison of relative rank positions in this chart. New York has stepped up its game, just as Governor Cuomo has said. Washington, New Jersey, and Louisiana are significant players. On the down Georgia and Indiana are punching below their respective weights. Indiana has performed just 10,000 tests for the man who was their recent governor and is Head of the COVID-19 Task Force. And from whence the current Surgeon General surfaced.
Chart 04: States by Population Testing Rate per 10,000 Residents
Chart 04 is where the rates are displayed in rank order and the relative numbers pop and show some ugly. On a per capita testing basis there are four superstar states: New York, Washington, Louisiana, and New Jersey. Three of them have a testing rate of more than 60 per 10,000, and New Jersey checks in at 40. The US average (after all the push and bragging by the Federal Higher ups the last 10 days) is still at a laggard 25, only about 1/3 of what the Korean model dictates. Florida is a disappoint at 20. This is less than 1/3 the rate in Louisiana. Which state has a better handle on what is going on in their respective back yards, neighborhoods, and cities?
But the toxic danger in present for Georgia, Texas. Both are Big States, and both have testing rates of only 10 per 10,000. This is pitiful. It also means there is an undiagnosed reservoir of cases waiting confirmation which will flower in the next short period of time. Watch out while the positive case numbers rocket upward.
California is a special case. Unlike the other states there are upwards of 40-50 thousand tests not yet declared. No other state has anything like such a backlog. What it means is opaque. Lack of information is a crippler. This needs fixing, yesterday. It would call into question any good feelings about a relatively low disease attack rate there. No premature back patting out West.
Chart 05: States by COVID-19 Population Illness Rate per 10,000 Residents
On a per capita basis the hardest hit US states are New York, New Jersey, and Louisiana right now. This will come as no particular surprise. Washington state’s illness rate is at 5.63 and is the most mature of all US states. Washington may be closest to peak and beginning decline.
Next in line for current high rates are Michigan and Illinois. Michigan warrants particular help immediately, and Illinois is not so behind. This is reinforced by the data that Michigan has a positive test percentage of 30% of all tests, suggesting a sick reservoir they are still tapping to catch up with more testing. Not a helpful sign. Compare to Louisiana where the enormous influx of testing has dropped the positive rate to about 13%. 10 days ago, it was in the 30-35% range for Louisiana.
Of course, there is a range and expected variability among the states, and the pandemic is moving across each state differently. Even so, it defies credulity that such large complex states as Texas and Ohio are reporting such low rates of illness. Texas is the worst. Their test rate is abysmal. When they get up to speed there will be a gushing forth of cases, illness, hospitalizations and medical trouble.
Ohio is reporting a low average illness rate per capita, and their testing rate is still below average. There will likely be a bump, but not as severe as the one coming to Texas.
The numbers are what they are. This method of presentation allows a glimpse behind the evolving data curtain. Trends are not certain, but they are not sugar plum fairies either. They are not extrapolations made from data from overseas. They are first impressions, and they will be refined with more data every day.
But they are a useful forward observation post in the viral battle to come, and careful people will take note, even through the fog of a medical crisis. It is coming on, not retreating.