We live in hope, all of us. Some states took the risks more seriously than others, earlier than others. Trump.45 blew it off until the last minute. He squandered whatever time delay was gained from initial restriction of travel from China in late January.
His voluntary 15-day guidelines were issued on March 16. He spent most of February and the first half of March smirking and making fun of the Hoax, dismissing a handful of recovering cases, repeating how well the Market was doing, trusting his gut and hunches, and ignoring the clear and present danger warnings from health officials.
As Hardy said to Laurel, repeatedly, starting in 1929, “Well, here’s another fine mess you’ve gotten me into.”* Thanks to the rotund Hardy of the 2020’s residing at 1600. All Credit to the Leader.
We strain to see flickers of relief from what is otherwise coming. Here are some daily charts from the NOLA website, one of the best and most detailed COVID-19 data aggregators for Louisiana.
Chart 01 is the crimson red spread map of COOVID-19 penetrance in Louisiana. It has marched into 59 of our 64 Parishes, and there is nowhere of any population density it hasn’t invaded. 90% to the Virus in geographic extent.
Chart 02 is the money chart for detecting hints of slowing acceleration. We will have a growing cumulative case load inevitably now, but are new cases accelerating daily as they were since March 9? Here is where you seek the falling off of the curve for new cases. And there is another dip and recovery in daily cases reported. This is the second instance of a three-day pattern in the past six days.
The first time the 3rd day recovery was at higher levels than the first day in the sequence. Today the resurgence has faltered. March 30 added 485 new cases, but this was fewer than the 569 new cases on the first day of this latest 3-day period. And yesterday’s increase was just 225 new cases, the lowest number in a week.
Imagine a curvy line connecting the tops of the gold bars. We are on a wavy course, but today’s wave height did not rise higher than the last boomlet as it has been, and the inter-day trough was deeper (a very good thing). The pattern of viral spread here almost seems to have an animated malevolence. Could the Beast be tiring from the shackles imposed by public health controls? We have no choice but to see what tomorrow’s numbers tell us.
In the meantime, we stay the course. Stay At Home, Stay At Home, Social Distance on Steroids, Avoid Public Events.
That is, all of us who care for neighbors, family and friends and abjure an arrogant, rigid declaration of phony religious freedom against the Public Interest. Even in Florida, a rogue Pastor got booked for violation of a Public Health Emergency. A Man of God should know better. The Pope prays to an empty Holy Square in Rome temporarily to save God’s Children and His Flock. What, that isn’t good enough for the grandson of a self-appointed Bishop Founder of the Life Tabernacle Church in EBR?
Oh yeah, and 15% of the entire country of Italy watched live on TV. 11 million souls praying together for God’s Grace remotely. No doubt he heard their joint entreaties just fine.
Chart 03 shows a slower more gradual growth in both hospitalized patients and those so sick they need ventilators. Thank goodness for the affected ill patients, and better news for our acute health care system and its ability to properly care for those who need help. The slope of these curves is significantly less than that for the trend of total cases. Glimmer of an improvement in our overall circumstances.
Finally Chart 04 shows a rapid divergence in a very good way between the total COVID-19 tests completed and the number of positive results. The positives are falling as a percentage of the total tests run. That means we are getting ahead of the reservoir of undiscovered infections among our residents. And since we have one of the highest per capita testing rates in the US (in the top 5), this is suggestive that the moderating rise in cases in real, not artifactual, despite our wavelet pattern in new cases.
We may not be at the peak of bearing the strain of daily new cases, but there is some numerical hesitation to the virus’ spread. And the timing is right if the public restrictions observed by so many are indeed taking hold.
Compare and contrast this local situation, fully including the tragic circumstances in New Orleans and Jefferson Parishes, with the abysmal US National Rocket Ship of Accumulated Cases, as we add 20,000 new cases per day across our country.
Waste your time to prepare; lose your stuff. Every Cajun knows that is no way to greet a Hurricane.
Another slice of real-life Trump.45 is notably ill-equipped for. He seems to think you can order home delivery of supplies from the hardware store as the winds hit Tropical Force speeds and higher ahead of Landfall. What a Chump.
Tonight, we mark another heartbreakingly sad milestone for our country and national sense of community. The COVID-19 Virus Pandemic has now claimed more than 3,000 lives of our fellow Americans, and passes the Tragic Toll of lives lost on September 11, 2001.
