It is a favorite sport among a certain set of Louisiana’s self-satisfied, Too Cool for Words Kids to make fun of archetypical Alabama residents in the Dumbass Redneck genre, with memes about marrying your cousin, retarded social skills, general lack of intelligence, and so forth. This banter amps up every fall especially around the annual Alabama LSU football game weekend. Just consult your average Facebook stream for the last few years.
One might attribute most of this to a genial joshing among close neighbors and kin, except that the bite is not limited to sports themes, but goes hard after inherent individual intelligence, moral character, etc. There is an underlying mean spiritedness that transcends mere sports rivalry, not so different from contemporary political commentary.
But that is a story for another time.
And of course, in 2019, LSU well and truly kicked Alabama and Nick Saban’s asses from here to Tuscaloosa and back.
One of life’s great lessons is to be careful about rock throwing whilst residing in glass houses. Precious as our Championship Tigers are, Football is not the topic of most intense interest right now.
Many pseudo sophisticates in Louisiana like to head over to Alabama’s coastal beaches for sunbathing, adult alcohol consumption, social close gathering, and massive partying. Witness the annual Flora Bama Mullet Toss in Orange Beach in April, which was postponed this year, and the May 2020 Hangout in Gulf Shores, also postponed (cancelled?). Both of these mass events have a near religious following among the 20-40 something crowds of Louisiana’s hearty partiers.
That was the set up for nearby summer fun just a modest car ride from home. Until COVID-19 in 2020.
Louisiana was hit very hard, very early by the pandemic and its residents have chaffed against public health restrictions on their liberty to engage in mass public gatherings during the acute phase of the pandemic. Some feel almost constitutionally challenged by this impermissible state curb on their natural rights to entertainment in large groups wherever, whenever. The majority have followed the rules, mostly, but folks are getting restless for sun and fun.
The stay at home order here has done an impressive job in truncating our early lousy start, but the Governor has responded by engaging Phase I reopening measures starting May 15.
Alabama, on the other hand, took a very casual approach to controlling the ravages of COVID-19 compared to her near neighbor in Louisiana, with little apparent damage to state health, until now. And the state has enthusiastically advertised on social media that the beautiful Alabama Beaches are open for business as of May 1 and beckoning to their Louisiana fans to come on over for food, fun and sun, like real soon and right now. Can’t blame them for taking advantage of lax rules when they can.
But here’s the Trap. Contrary to expectation that Louisiana residents can temporarily escape the viral mess that has befallen us, and revel in the pristine Alabama beach party life, the current actual viral spread conditions indicate that is a foolish and risky jump.
Here is the Washington Post’s Daily Alabama COVID-19Tracker. On May 1 when Alabama went Open Arms, the average number of new cases was 165 per day. After 2 weeks in the re-entry period the average number of new cases per day is now 280, a 70% increase in the 7-day daily average in just two cycles.
And for those who have regard for science-based evidence, note that after April 4 when Alabama did belatedly put a Stay At Home order in place (2 weeks after Louisiana) there was no decline from the level of 7-day average daily new infections through April 30 when the reopening began. In other words, Alabama didn’t meet Trump’s Guideline of a 14-day decline in new cases before easing up.
Here’s the same charted data from the New York Times for comparison and reference. Deaths in Alabama as a 7-day average have also continued to rise in the first two weeks of May under the opening rules.
Another valuable data tracking source for reopening is found at COVID Exit Strategy. This group calculates that Alabama’s 14-day average new cases are growing at 34%, while Louisiana is at only 5%. Alabama’s doubling time for new cases is at 26 days, while Louisiana is at 59, more than twice as good a performance. The RT value which measures the current pandemic spread potential of the virus in a particular place (less than 1.0 means the pandemic is burning out) for Alabama is a mean of 0.89; for Louisiana the RT mean value is 0.8. Louisiana is better by 10% as of today at breaking the uncontrolled spread of infection.
Alabama is also testing at 54% of the recommended rate for managing contact tracing versus 97% for Louisiana. That means that Alabama is sower to recognize a source of infection where it exists, and thus raises the risk of inadvertent spread by those in contact with out of town visitors, say bartenders, wait staff, beach attendants, hotel clerks, etc., etc.
Finally, Alabama’s COVID-19 tests are running 7% positive each day, while Louisiana is now at 5.7%, both on a 14-day rolling average. This means that Alabama is still not testing enough to be confident of identifying positive cases for surveillance and tracing. They have a larger reservoir of unrecognized illness for Louisiana visitors to be unknowingly exposed to.
All in all, the COVID-19 grass is not greener in Alabama right now than here at home in Louisiana. Or the whiter sands may be prettier, but they sure aren’t healthier for out of town visitors.
Of course, free men and women in the end will do mostly what they want. That’s too bad when they choose to embrace avoidable unnecessary health risks that will increase their own chances of illness, hospitalization and worse, but socially blameworthy when they put innocent others in harm’s way. All to satisfy a non-local beach entertainment desire during a health crisis.
We won’t even get into the gestalt of practical social distancing what with beach crowds, free flowing alcohol, too much sun, strange hotel rooms, eat-in restaurants, nightclubbing, locker and change rooms, etc.
It will be safe to visit Alabama’s beaches, maybe even before this summer is completely over. But it isn’t safe right now. And only an ignorant Louisiana Southern Dumbass would risk it today.
You know, like those Dumbass Alabama memes we are so fond of during fall Football Season.
Whose sandal is on which foot now?