This is the latest graphic from the COVID-19 Dashboard Mapdated June 25 which illustrates the state of play in recent COVID-19 control failures. As is obvious from inspection, the worst of the worst among all 50 US states runs along the southernmost US border. This second marked map makes the point a bit plainer.
Among these eight states from West to East: Arizona, New Mexico, Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Florida, and Georgia, five of the eight belong in the group of the Worst 10 performing states in our country.
Remember when a few weeks ago we were assured by our Stable Genius that the virus would just disappear in hot weather. We are now nearly through June and the hot weather has been sticking us here for nearly two-months, as things get worse COVID-wise. Never one to miss a narrative to rejigger the facts, the latest excuse we hear bruited about is that folks are spending more time indoors now than February (due to the heat), so they are more likely to catch the virus from being indoors now than before.
Stop laughing. There are some ‘responsible’ people trying to peddle this fantasy.
What is not immediately obvious is that along this 8 state Southern Tier seven of the states voted heavily for Trump.45 in 2016 (all but New Mexico). Indeed, these seven states formed a solid core for Trump.45 to be able to win. They accounted for 117 of his Electoral College Votes, 38% of his total, and six of the eight today have Republican governors as well (except New Mexico and Louisiana), to go with their Republican senators, House Delegations, and state legislative chambers.
Lots of Red here. Lots of compliant state leaders looking to the White House for inspiration, leadership, and guidance from Trump.45 and the White House to Whip That Virus, and Make (Keep) American Great Again.
So, how’re we doing in this neck of the woods lately? It turns out, not so well.
Here are some relevant charts from this week. Data are courtesy of the massive state COV(ID-19 databases maintained daily by the analytics, graphics, and reporting teams at the Washington Post. Along with others like the New York Times, the Johns Hopkins CSSU, and the COVID tracking Project these folks are performing an irreplaceable public service for our country, stepping up as the Federal Government continues to fail in its mandated, taxpayer-funded public health data gathering responsibilities for more than 5 months now since the pandemic began in January.
All else being equal in state level administrative and public health responses, we ought to see the number of COVID-19 cases approximately correspond to the size of a particular state’s population. It is not so.
The most recent day’s data shows there were more than 22,845 new infections in just these 8 states alone, compared to 47,341 in the entire country, more than 48% of the US total. Yet these states account for 25% of the US population (82.99 million of 330.98 million).
In a second view of the recent data over the last two days, Arizona, Texas, Florida all had daily increases of 4%-7% in new cases. This works out to a pandemic case doubling time of around 20 days or less, a depressingly high spread rate, and a sign of major trouble to come. Only New Mexico and Louisiana registered either day below 2%, which implies a doubling rate of about 50 days, still too high, but manageable as we have seen earlier this spring when controls are enforced.
Through the worst of the pandemic until the end of April, when the peak was supposed to be behind all of us through fantastic Presidential Leadership, while Louisiana led all states in the South, we exceeded 2,000 new cases per day only twice, and our highest 7-day rolling average was never more than 1,600 for the worst week. As the third chart demonstrates, this most recent week Arizona, Texas, Florida, and Georgia have each easily eclipsed Louisiana’s most grim performance, and they are all on the way higher from here.
In terms of present tense activity, only New Mexico and Louisiana are growing at less than 15% per week. Texas, Florida, and Arizona are each growing at more than 25% per week right now. This despite their enormous case burdens of 132,000, 123,000, and 66,000 cumulative cases. Each of these three states has 20,000 newly diagnosed cases just in the last 7 days.
These numbers are deeply troubling and out of control. They are not the result of increased testing, despite fanciful thinking by some apologists. They are not due to weather changes. They are not due to Blue State influence or political chicanery. They are not a Media Deep State Hoax.
Take a look at the graphic results for all eight states. See which ones reached their respective first wave COVID-19 peaks in April, and how they have done since staggered re-openings began after May 1. See why Florida and Texas had to backtrack today and reimpose some social and business restrictions to save lives, because they Believed too much in the Magic Fairy Dust.
All six Republican led states are worse off now they have ever been during the COVID-19 pandemic. Only the two Democratic led states are plateauing since they loosened business and social controls.
The case numbers are the result of deliberate political choices. The credit and blame lies directly at the feet of these states’ Republican Governors, their dominant political party climate, and the incessant barrage of poor decisions, anti-science declarations, and lack of leadership by one man. The Decider in the White House.
As ye sow, so shall ye reap.
We can still temper some of the damage, but only if we stop playing Wishing Games about beach parties, bar hopping, and that tragedy only strikes old people and people who don’t look like me.
Some of Y’all need a new mirror.
A parting shout out to Trump.45 at his Wisconsin event on June 25. He still won’t wear a mask, and he looks tired and slightly stooped as he shuffles off the stage, but under his own power without a Ramp or a General for support.
Go, Donald!