Trump E-Gram: Texas Early Rising Blue (October 25, 2020)

From Wikipedia on 2016 Texas Presidential Election:

The voting age population was 19,307,355, of which 15,101,087 were registered to vote. Turnout was 8,969,226, which is 46.45% of the voting age population and 59.39% of registered voters.

Thirteen candidates received write-in votes, of which the large majority (42,366) went to Evan McMullin.

Registration in 2020 is 17 million. In 2016 it was 15.1 million.

Trump got 4.69 million votes in 2016. Total vote was 8.97 million.

Cruz got 4.26 million votes in 2018. Total vote was 8.37 million.

Cornyn got 2.86 million votes in 2014. Total vote was 4.64 million.

Texas Early Votes in 2016: 4.50 million. 4.19 million in Person, 0.31 million Mail In.

Texas Early Votes in 2020: 7.19 million (as of 10/24). 6.36 million in Person; 0.84 million Mail In.

So far in 2020 In Person voting is already up 52%; Mail In votes by 171%.

In 2014 Cornyn’s margin of victory was 1,260,816 when 4.64 million voted. (27.2%).

In 2016 Trump’s margin of victory was 807,179 when 8.97 million voted. (9%).

In 2018, Cruz’ margin of victory was 214, 921 when 8.37 million voted (2.6%).

Republicans running for Federal Office statewide in Texas are less and less popular. Since 2014 their victory margins have eroded from 27% to 2.5%, a drop of 90%. Senators running in 2014 and 2018 were both incumbents and well known to their constituents. The average loss of Republican advantage per two-year cycle recently has been 12%.

The actual loss in Republican victory margin votes over this period is 1,045,895.

We are now having the fourth consecutive two-year test of that proposition in 2020, and this time for both President and Senator. Both Republicans are incumbents, and Trump is less popular than in 2016. RCP polling put Trump at +9 in 2016; now he is at +2.6; 48.6% overall. Romney was +15.8 in 2012.

These data suggest two things. The Texas Republican Federal Victory Cushion has shrunk by 1 million votes over the last three elections, even with much larger vote totals overall. And even if Cruz’ performance is corrected for the higher Presidential year turnout (7.2%), the Republican Texas Advantage would only be 230,000 or 15,600 votes more.

If 60% of the 1.9 new registered voters in Texas since 2016 vote this year, that would presage an additional 1.14 million to increase the 8.97 who voted last time. A new total expected total of 10.1 million Texas votes for President in 2020.

But with a solid week left for Early Voting only, we have already had 7.19 million votes. In 2016 total Early Votes were 4.5 million. 2020 already has seen an increase of 2.69 million votes compared to 2016. So maybe the expected number of Texas votes in 2020 should be closer to 11.66 million instead of 10.1 million projected.

In 2016 total Early Votes amounted to 50.2% of all votes. If the Present Early Vote total was projected with the 2016 ratio, that could mean a total 2020 Texas vote of 14.38 million.

Is that possible? Yes, in the Best of All Possible Panglossian Worlds. In reality, it is the extreme high-end range of what could be happen. Great weather, incredible GOTV efforts, nothing in 9 days to depress voter enthusiasm, no large-scale voting suppression efforts, no genius undeterred foreign hacks, no further Court monkey wrenching, etc.

So, I would estimate the final Texas vote total will be somewhere in the range of 10.1 million to 14.4 million, probably around 12 million.

The RNC brags about its GOTV in person targeting and mobilization prowess, built out over years with generous funding. Let’s see if they have one more card to play against inevitable long-term demographics and the Pandemic.

If past history is any judge or predictor, the more new 2020 votes actually cast, the worse Election night will be for the GOP in Texas, and one DJT. If he loses there, it won’t matter a farthing what happens anywhere else competitive. He would be one very large piece of Burnt Orange Toast.

Odds are, in the end, Trump.45 might just squeak by in Texas. Cornyn has a bit better shot, maybe as part of a Texan Deliberate Act of governmental balancing. But the Ultimate Bluing of Texas still seems inevitable.

In the meantime, our Brothers and Sisters Texas are leading the nation in voting so far in 2020 with magnificent numbers in the books. More is Better. Good on Ya, Lone Star State. Molly would so approve.

If everyone gets to vote free of interference, America wins. We deserve the result.

Huge Bigly, Baby!!

Wikipedia 2016 Presidential Election